Massively

Analyst: SWTOR caused Dragon Age III delay

Justin Olivetti — Tue, 08 May 2012 15:30:00 EST

Filed under: Sci-fi, MMO industry, Star Wars: The Old Republic

There's been a lot of discussion following the recent EA earnings report in which the company announced that Star Wars: The Old Republic has 1.3 million subscribers, down from its previous 1.7 million mark. We've heard from the fans, the critics, and the studio itself -- now it's time for the analysts to contribute their side of the conversation. According to Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter, EA's investment in SWTOR has caused a delay in other projects at BioWare, particularly in Dragon Age III's case.

The analyst noted that Dragon Age III's expected release window was delayed, and he says this is due to the enormous undertaking of SWTOR. "We believe that a significant portion of the BioWare team responsible for the game was reassigned to Star Wars in order to create content and fix bugs to keep the game's audience engaged," Pachter said.

Delay or no, Pachter is upbeat about EA's future, especially in light of the earnings report's news that the company turned a profit. He says that the company will continue to grow, make money, and be a good bet for investors.

Analyst: SWTOR caused Dragon Age III delay originally appeared on Massively on Tue, 08 May 2012 15:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments

Report: 64% of Chinese gamers spend money on online games

Justin Olivetti — Tue, 03 Apr 2012 16:00:00 EST

Filed under: Economy, MMO industry, Free-to-play, Miscellaneous

Gaming in China is serious business, especially once you consider that a strong majority of players dish out money to support their habit every month. Analyst group Niko Partners polled 500 Chinese gamers and found that 64% of them dropped money on online titles monthly, including many free-to-play and MMO games. Considering that China has 180 million players and a $5.8 billion gaming market, the country continues to be watched closely as a major economic force in the online realm.

And while MMOs still account for a good portion of the income, they've lost some ground to other types of games, according to Niko Partners Managing Partner Lisa Cosmas Hanson. "Online games revenues are now more distributed among various platforms and genres than they have been in past years, when MMORPGs compiled the vast majority of domestic revenue," she said.

Other interesting details from this report include the news that players are spending less time per week on games and that one in 10 players in the country is over 40 years of age.

Report: 64% of Chinese gamers spend money on online games originally appeared on Massively on Tue, 03 Apr 2012 16:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments

Analyst believes Star Wars: The Old Republic had a $500 million price tag

Eliot Lefebvre — Tue, 17 Jan 2012 19:00:00 EST

Filed under: Sci-fi, MMO industry, News items, Star Wars: The Old Republic

Is Star Wars: The Old Republic the next big thing in MMOs? The same old thing in a new shell? Innovative? Routine? Polished? Buggy? Ask seven different people and you'll get nine different opinions. The one thing that everyone can agree on is that the game was expensive, and while most analysts are estimating somewhere between $100-$300 million, analyst Doug Creutz suspects that Electronic Arts has sunk nearly half a billion dollars into the project.

This is in stark contrast to the estimate from analyst Michael Pachter, who targeted the price tag at roughly $80 million when all was said and done. Unfortunately, the precise cost won't be known unless EA decides to release the game's official budget and how much was spent on development, which seems unlikely. What is certain is that the performance of Star Wars: The Old Republic is going to be under close scrutiny over the coming months among both fans of the game and fans of financial speculation.

[Thanks to Ben for the tip!]

Analyst believes Star Wars: The Old Republic had a $500 million price tag originally appeared on Massively on Tue, 17 Jan 2012 19:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments

Analyst claims that Star Wars: The Old Republic points to a healthy MMO market

Eliot Lefebvre — Tue, 27 Dec 2011 19:45:00 EST

Filed under: Sci-fi, MMO industry, New titles, News items, Star Wars: The Old Republic

The gaming industry is pretty morbid when you get right down to it. 2011 has seen several people predicting the death of the MMO market and the death of subscription games, often times in the same sentence. But according to analyst Colin Sebastian, the launch of Star Wars: The Old Republic makes it clear that these reports of death have been greatly exaggerated. As Sebastian puts it, the unprecedented growth of SWTOR's player figures indicates that the market still possesses a demand for new games and still responds favorably.

Sebastian goes on to predict that the game will likely move around three million units by March 2012, the end of the fiscal year, although he believes that staying power is a bit more questionable. He believes that predictions of up to two million paying users by the end of 2012 might be overly optimistic. That having been said, the game has certainly come out of the gate with real strength; it only remains to be seen if it can maintain that.

Analyst claims that Star Wars: The Old Republic points to a healthy MMO market originally appeared on Massively on Tue, 27 Dec 2011 19:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments

Analyst claims SWTOR could already have 1.5 million players

Matt Daniel — Mon, 19 Dec 2011 14:00:00 EST

Filed under: Sci-fi, MMO industry, News items, Star Wars: The Old Republic

It's not exactly a secret that big things are expected of BioWare's recent entry to the MMO market, Star Wars: The Old Republic. Cowen & Company analyst Doug Creutz speculates that the game could have up to 1.5 million players already, even though the game doesn't officially launch for another day. This conclusion comes about based on the fact that EA had 140 servers running by last Saturday. If that's the population right now, we can assuredly expect that the game's official launch will see big numbers indeed. We'll just have to wait one more day to find out.

Analyst claims SWTOR could already have 1.5 million players originally appeared on Massively on Mon, 19 Dec 2011 14:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments

MMO subscription dollars in decline for the first time since 2002

Justin Olivetti — Thu, 15 Sep 2011 12:30:00 EST

Filed under: Economy, MMO industry, Miscellaneous

With all of the free-to-play MMOs coming onto the market and the F2P conversion of formerly subscription-only titles, it should come as no surprise that the subscription model is losing its grip on the industry. Eurogamer reports that starting in 2010, the money brought in from MMO subscriptions has actually gone into decline for the first time ever since analysts began tracking it in 2002.

2010's subscription revenue added up to $1.58 billion, a respectable amount but still 5% less than 2009. 2009 saw a 10% bump in subscriptions, and 2008 witnessed 21.6% growth. Connect the dots, and subscription revenue has most likely peaked and begun a downhill slide. Analysts predict that by 2015, revenue from subs will be as low as $1.33 billion. However, with the popularity of RIFT this year and the coming storm of Star Wars: The Old Republic, the subscription model may see a resurgence.

On the flip side, microtransactions from F2P models are rising exponentially, jumping 24% from 2009 to 2010 to account for $1.13 billion. With the two models combined, the industry saw a very modest 5% increase last year in revenue.

Screen Digest analyst Piers Harding-Rolls sees the writing on the wall: "The focus of many PC game operators has clearly shifted to micro-transaction‐based models -- in part due to competition in the subscription market especially in the high‐end MMOG segment, but also because of the flexibility micro-transactions offer operators in monetising gamers."

MMO subscription dollars in decline for the first time since 2002 originally appeared on Massively on Thu, 15 Sep 2011 12:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments

Online sales will dominate the market by 2013

Justin Olivetti — Tue, 13 Sep 2011 10:00:00 EST

Filed under: Business models, MMO industry, Miscellaneous

If you purchase your video games from a brick and mortar retailer, chances are you will be in the minority in just a couple of years.

GamesIndustry.biz cites a new report that predicts online game sales will become the dominant force in the market by 2013 through individual websites, retailers like Amazon.com, and video game distributors like Steam. A DFC Intelligence analyst noted that boxed game sales already peaked in 2008, and that as physical game sales slowly decline, online sales will pick up at a marked pace. DFC is a research and consulting firm that covers the field of video games.

Last year, online game retailers sold over $19.3 billion worth of digital merchandise -- a figure that's expected to rise to $37.9 billion by 2016. While real-world stores have much to worry about as the market shifts in the direction of online sales, the industry as a whole is expected to continue to substantially increase its growth over the next half-decade. One of the "key drivers" for that growth is PC games.

The analysts also predicted that in-game advertising will increase two-fold in the next few years as advertisers realize the potential for this blossoming market.

Online sales will dominate the market by 2013 originally appeared on Massively on Tue, 13 Sep 2011 10:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments

Single-player games will be dead in three years, says industry analyst

Jef Reahard — Wed, 17 Aug 2011 13:30:00 EST

Filed under: Culture, MMO industry, News items, Consoles, Miscellaneous

So game development studios desperately want to move the entirety of our hobby online in order to mimic the recurring revenue model of MMORPGs. That's not exactly news, but it is news when an industry analyst makes an eyebrow-raising claim regarding the immediate future of the genre. To that effect, Eurogamer recently attended a "closed-door, Sony-organized panel discussion on the future of video games," which featured an analyst predicting the end of single-player titles by 2014.

Mark Cerny, a "veteran video game consultant," used the 2009 single-player RPG Demon's Souls as an example, saying that its mixture of traditional offline gameplay and social connectivity to other gamers experiencing the same title is the wave of the future.

"The funny thing here is, we don't even know what to call this. Is it single-player or is it multiplayer? We don't even have the words. It's kind of Orwellian. If you don't have any word for freedom you can't have a revolution," Cerny said. What exactly is that revolution, and will it be good for gamers? Check back in 2014 to find out.

Single-player games will be dead in three years, says industry analyst originally appeared on Massively on Wed, 17 Aug 2011 13:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Permalink | Email this | Comments

Analysts praise free-to-play MMOs, casually insult MMO players

Michael Zenke — Mon, 02 Feb 2009 11:00:00 EST

Filed under: Business models

A thoughtful Reuters piece explores a concept that MMO players have themselves been talking about since the economy began to take a downturn. Free to play MMOs, which have been gaining in popularity in the US for years, may be one of the biggest winners of this depressed financial situation. The article explores the benefits and increasingly high quality of online titles that don't require a subscription fee. While South Korea and other Asian countries have long enjoyed a strong connection with inexpensive social online gaming, that message is only just reaching saturation here in the states.

What's troubling to this blogger is that amid this very common-sense analysis, one of the most well-known commentators on videogaming sees fit to take a cheap swipe at a cross-section of gamers. Said Michael Pachter, an analyst at Wedbush Morgan: "I don't think (online multiplayer games) get impacted at all, because people who play them are addicts ... Losing their jobs makes them more likely to play because they have more time to play." It's frustrating that one of the few business analysts out there in the business world that understands gaming could be so dismissive of the online gaming genre. We'd like to suggest he do a bit more research in the future on this subject before making snappy statements like that.

Analysts praise free-to-play MMOs, casually insult MMO players originally appeared on Massively on Mon, 02 Feb 2009 11:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments

5 million Lich Kings to be sold in November, analyst guesses

Michael Zenke — Sat, 08 Nov 2008 13:00:00 EST

Filed under: World of Warcraft, Fantasy, Expansions

Wrath of the Lich King is due out in ... approximately 4 days 10 hours, according to WoW Insider's countdown. That's exciting news for World of Warcraft players, and even more exciting news for Activision/Blizzard. The company, which relies on WoW's income for a noteworthy part of its profits, is expected to sell some 5 million copies of the MMO's second expansion just in the game's first month. Gamasutra reports on this speculation, which comes from Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey.

Hickey thinks that the flagged US economy will ultimately not have an impact on Blizzard's numbers this holiday season, and is impressed by WoW's continued success in the face of competition like Age of Conan and Warhammer Online. We'll know very soon how well Blizzard's second MMO expansion does . We only have about 4 days, 9 hours, and 40 minutes left to wait ...

5 million Lich Kings to be sold in November, analyst guesses originally appeared on Massively on Sat, 08 Nov 2008 13:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments

Analyst: WAR subscriptions will eventually settle around 250,000

Samuel Axon — Wed, 24 Sep 2008 12:00:00 EST

Filed under: Fantasy, MMO industry, New titles, Warhammer Online, News items

Business analyst Arvind Bhatia shared his predictions about Warhammer Online's financial future with Edge magazine yesterday. Bhatia, who works at brokerage firm Stern Agee, said he believes EA is ultimately shooting for around 250,000 - 300,000 subscribers once the launch dust clears, with occassional bumps when major content releases such as expansons occur.

Given the hype around the game, those numbers seem a little low, but Bhatia said he based his projections on statements made by EA reps saying that the company hopes to break even on its investment. After the game shipped 1.5 million copies, some initial sales data began to emerge which indicated that sales are meeting but not significantly exceeding EA's conservative expectations. In the end Bhatia expects the company to pull in between $55 and 60 million dollars of revenue from WAR.

Numbers like the ones above would clearly not make WAR a WoW-killer, but they would make it one of the elite few truly successful Western, subscription-based MMOs. Certainly this prediction is a far cry from Paul Barnett's wild bet. But of course even Barnett admits his number is a little outrageous, and he only stands to lose $26 if he loses, y'know.

Analyst: WAR subscriptions will eventually settle around 250,000 originally appeared on Massively on Wed, 24 Sep 2008 12:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments

Analysts see into future, expect 650k US sales for WAR's first month

Kyle Horner — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 09:00:00 EST

Filed under: New titles, Warhammer Online, News items

Here we go again, it's time for people to start predicting the sales of the next big MMO. So get out your thinking hat and grab ahold of your pie charts and bar graphs! Hm, somehow that sounded a lot more exciitng before we said it. Anyhow, Warhammer Online is nearly at launch day and has been given a 650,000 sales prediction for the first month in the United States from Lazard Capital Markets senior VP, Colin Sebastian. It's important to stress that this is for the US territory only, which means that's kind of a high prediction.

Our guess for the reason behind the European exclusion is because it's a bit of a wildcard. Warhammer being a much bigger property over there means its sales could land almost anywhere. It could also be because Lazard Capital Markets only deals in US sales predictions, but we like to think they're scared of Europe, instead. All in all with first month US sales being predicted at over half a million, we have to assume many are expecting Warhammer Online to perform pretty impressively overall.

Analysts see into future, expect 650k US sales for WAR's first month originally appeared on Massively on Thu, 04 Sep 2008 09:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments

Why aren't there more console MMOs?

Michael Zenke — Mon, 09 Jun 2008 14:30:00 EST

Filed under: Business models, MMO industry, Consoles

Joe Ludwig is probably best known for his role as producer on the historical MMO Pirates of the Burning Sea. Today the Gamasutra site is running an opinion article written by Mr. Ludwig, looking into the surprising dearth of console MMOs on the market. He's essentially responding to a post by Dan Rubenfield, a confrontational post that puts MMO developers "on notice". While undoubtedly there are several opinions in the post to take issue with, the Gamasutra article tackles this statement directly: "If you continue to refuse to acknowledge consoles as the de-facto standard for AAA gaming, you will go out of business. Quit making PC games. It's a waste of time and money."

Ludwig asserts that he'd love to make console games, but there are numerous barriers between his interest and reality. We've even talked about a number of these problems on the site, but they're well worth exploring again. Problems like the lack of a keyboard, the rarity of a double-console household, and the hoop-jumping required to get content certified all warrant a look. Of these issues, Ludwig sees the console holder's demand for a share as the most daunting obstacle. In the near-future, console MMOs are probably doomed. What the future might hold is another story entirely.

Why aren't there more console MMOs? originally appeared on Massively on Mon, 09 Jun 2008 14:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments

Analyst: More MMOs on cell phones in 2008

Mike Schramm — Mon, 07 Jan 2008 22:30:00 EST

Filed under: Business models, Game mechanics, Leveling, Opinion, Mobile, Casual

If there's one trend so far in 2008, it's mobile MMOs. Last year, we heard about both a Japanese game and a mobile platform, and already this year, John Carmack has says he wants to do an MMO on-the-go. And now, analyst and VC Baris Karadogan says MMObile games are only going to get bigger.

And not just in terms of games you play on the phone. He does say that casual phone games will become more social, but he also says that huge MMOs like World of Warcraft will attempt to develop casual, mobile versions that can be "played" from a phone, and have an effect in the game itself. As in, you'll play a quick casual game on your phone, and how you do on that game will give you XP or skill points or even some extra cash in the online game.

I doubt Blizzard will be the first to jump on such a bandwagon-- their history is releasing polished games on established platforms, not breaking new ground. But it's easy to see how a smaller, up-and-coming, very API friendly game might try to duck into the mobile software space, and put together a model for how MMObile or MMO-to-go games might work.

Analyst: More MMOs on cell phones in 2008 originally appeared on Massively on Mon, 07 Jan 2008 22:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments