During the presentation, titled Free-to-Play Market Trends and Metrics, Dr. Joost van Dreunen explored the recent market performance of the free-to-play genre and shared predictions about the future. As Managing Director at Superdata Research (a company that specializes in research on entertainment media and consumer technologies), van Dreunen has a wealth of market data at his disposal. He also teaches a course in media theory in games at NYU and will be adding economics for game developers next term. These are his thoughts on the state of free-to-play today and in the future.
Van Dreunen began by suggesting that the market has shifted away from retail box sales of the last 30 years. In the last five years alone, digital and F2P sales have increased tenfold in the US market; breakout F2P titles yield $100 to $500 million annually. He also pointed out that 2012 is the first year that free-to-play has become the dominant model in the gaming industry. He believes it will continue to grow.
Likened to snackers, this new demographic has very different ways of spending money: Its members prefer to sample a bit here and there rather than shell out a large upfront sum or commit to monthly subs. According to van Dreunen, this new type of gamer, who is sandwiched between the casual dabblers and the hardcore players, has discovered through casual experience that he or she really enjoys gaming and now wants to experience something deeper. It is this group that will continue to spend the most on games.
Supporting his position, van Dreunen pointed to the mounting data showing that conversion rates (getting folks to sample games) and average revenue from paying users in social games have increased in the last 2.5 years, indicating that people are becoming more comfortable playing games and more comfortable spending money in them.
For developers looking to innovate and grow, van Dreunen says free-to-play will be the successful model of the future. He emphasized how free-to-play makes it easier for games to get off the ground and build as they go. He also argued that free-to-play will become the industry standard in time: "F2P is a revenue model that is the equivalent of the MP3 in the music industry... it's accessible, it's affordable, and it lets people build their own experiences."
Massively sent two plucky game journalists -- Beau Hindman and Karen Bryan -- to Austin, Texas, for this year's GDC Online, where they'll be reporting back on MMO trends, community theory, old favorites, and new classics. Stay tuned for even more highlights from the show!