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Reader Comments (77)

Posted: Dec 27th 2011 8:12PM comps said

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"Guild Wars 2 will launch and be really cool and do very well but will fail to achieve the numbers hardcore fanboys expect -- you know, just like Guild Wars did."

guild wars 1 sold over 7 million. how are you even a writer?

Posted: Dec 27th 2011 8:27PM edgecrusherO0 said

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@comps

She has a point. There are insanely high expectations for the game and it could very well not sell the millions of copies (initially) that fans expect. GW1 has had 7ish years to sell that many copies, so while it's impressive, it's not like "OMG BEST SELLING GAME EVER!".
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Posted: Dec 27th 2011 8:40PM (Unverified) said

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@edgecrusherO0
And what are these insanely high expectations? I haven't heard anyone give any firm predictions. I certainly haven't heard anyone saying it will beat any particular game.

What I have heard is everyone who has had an oppurtunity to play it has gushed over it.
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Posted: Dec 27th 2011 8:40PM comps said

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@edgecrusherO0

just the second best.
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Posted: Dec 27th 2011 8:44PM Pyzlnar said

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@comps
Hnnnnng She does have a point. As much as I love and drool for Guild Wars 2 it's not even nearly as known and famous as TOR (which isn't as known and famous as WoW) yet.

MK did say that they haven't even started marketing GW2, but I don't know if we'll have those big ass numbers right on release, but maybe later on. :)
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Posted: Dec 27th 2011 9:23PM Snowblind said

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@edgecrusherO0
Even on the GW2 forums, nobody is expecting the game to pull Old Republic level numbers. GW2 is trying to be a fun game, that's different from typical MMO's. For some, that's hugely appealing.. but nobody thinks it's going to be a WoW killer.
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Posted: Dec 27th 2011 9:30PM comps said

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@Snowblind

which is why i made the comment i did.

I don't think anybody who is really excited about the game is expecting it to be a wow killer, but who really cares about that?
the point was that guild wars 1 was a success so suggesting that it wasn't is kind of silly.
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Posted: Dec 27th 2011 10:05PM (Unverified) said

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@edgecrusherO0 Most people don't have insanely high expectations from Guild Wars 2. But when you see all the MMOs of this year and the next GW2 is the only one that stands out. Add to that that it has more ambitions than GW which already sold over 7m copies (yes it has been 6 years but so many copies is a lot for a PC exclusive). I don't think she has a point. at all.
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Posted: Dec 27th 2011 10:59PM Space Cobra said

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@(Unverified)

"Add to that that it has more ambitions than GW which already sold over 7m copies (yes it has been 6 years but so many copies is a lot for a PC exclusive)."

See, *that* is the point. It's been about 6 years.... GW did not start with all 7 million playing the game. That's the point.

I think there is interest in GW2 for a healthy launch. I think it will even be a fun game, but I don't see it as a break-out hit for those that are not game hobbyist so far. Of course, I haven't played the game and if the game is fun, it should grow. With GW1's established player-base, that should bring in good numbers, but no one really knows if this will be a "great hit" or a "modest hit" or "not a hit".

And really "a hit" is all relative on perception. There are MMOs that run fine and have good sub numbers, but forum trolls will tell you it wasn't a "hit", yet the game wasn't shut down.
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Posted: Dec 27th 2011 11:41PM jealouspirate said

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@comps

I actually agree with that assessment, I don't think GW2 will pull in the kind of numbers that TOR has.

But I think that's okay. GW2 is my most anticipated game, but it doesn't need to be the best selling to be successful. It's really more of a niche game. It had a very specific vision and isn't trying to cast the widest possible net like WoW and TOR do.
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Posted: Dec 28th 2011 12:44AM Joaquin Crowe said

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@jealouspirate I think GW2 will be more of a slow burn that will increase in sales as time goes on due to word of mouth on gameplay -- while TOR will have it's initial high burn of initial boxes sold, with a drop in interest 4-6 months in.
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Posted: Dec 28th 2011 1:44AM Utakata said

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@comps and the rest

Keep in mind there are two writers (Justin and Shawn) who have far higher expectations for GW2 than the "hardcore fanboys" Brianna spoke of. And also keep in mind, that Brianna also has very high expectation MoP turning things around for WoW and made the bold predicition there will be announcement for CoH2...

...but that's what predictions moslty are: Wishful thinking with a dash of industry analysis. I wouldn't take too much stock in it either way.
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Posted: Dec 28th 2011 6:52AM (Unverified) said

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@comps

Guild Wars is far from second best, in terms of MMO sales. It might have sold 7 million copies, but its player base is around 2-4 million, the rest of the sales are from expansions. And the majority of the players aren't even active, in terms of playing weekly/monthly.

World of Warcraft has 10-12 million active subscribers, but has sold close to 40-60 million copies. So clearly that's number one.

Then Everquest, Lineage, Aion and a couple of others have sold more than Guild Wars (combined with expansions) by far.

Plus, to other comments here, I've read a lot from GW2 fangurls raving about Guild Wars 2 and that it will destroy every single MMO right now and those in the future. Just watch some Guild Wars 2 videos on youtube, so yes, the writer has a lot of ground to stand on for saying this.

Guild Wars 2 community puts me off completely, World of Warcraft 2.0 players, not good.
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Posted: Dec 28th 2011 7:12AM comps said

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@(Unverified)

it wasn't an entirely serious comment but guild wars is more popular in the west than people give it credit for.

everquest is nowhere near the second most popular mmo , it was popular at a time when not many people were on the internet.
"Over 2.5 million copies of the game and its expansions have been sold
in box or digitally downloaded since 1999."

yes lineage and aion are hugely popular in korea, but nowhere else
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Posted: Dec 28th 2011 7:50AM DarkWalker said

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@(Unverified)

WoW most likely sold close to 25M copies during it's lifetime if Blizzard was being honest about former players surpassing current players earlier this year.

Still impressive, but not even near that 40M-60M figure.

(This also means that there are, most likely, over 12M previous WoW players in other MMOs; it's interesting to think that WoW influences the expectations of that many MMO players.)
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Posted: Dec 28th 2011 10:18AM Makovorn said

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@comps

Seven million sounds like an impressive number and it certainly looks good on paper ... but on the whole, it isn't really that much of a feat. GW1 is cheap to buy these days and ppl come and go. If you don't like it, you can put the game aside without feeling that it broke the bank somehow.

I'm a huge GW fan and as much as I love the hype and buzz around the forthcoming GW2, I'm afraid it isn't nearly going to be as big as people think. At best, it will be a niche market, just like GW1. I'll still play the hell out of it though. :)
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Posted: Dec 28th 2011 12:50PM Irem said

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@Makovorn
It won't be nearly as niche as the first game, I can almost guarantee, just because it's designed to appeal to a much wider audience. I'm actually not sure where the impression of it being a "niche" title is coming from, as the people it's most likely to appeal to are those looking for an experience that isn't centered on endgame progression raiding. If the number of people who mostly enjoy open world/leveling content in other MMOs and spend most of their playtime making alts and running dungeons are any indication...that's a pretty big number of people, probably bigger than the number interested in endgame. WoW succeeded on the huge scale it did due at least in part to accessibility.

Do I think GW2 will pull WoW numbers? No, and I wouldn't want it to, frankly. But -if- their design pans out, it should manage to give more experienced players plenty to do while not alienating more casual ones, and that's a far cry from GW1. I can't imagine trying to get, say, my mom (who is a very casual player) into GW1. I'm pretty sure GW2 will pass the casual test, and that will probably make all the difference.
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Posted: Jan 1st 2012 8:20AM (Unverified) said

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@DarkWalker
Blizzard has confirmed that there are MORE "former WoW players" than current ones, so yes.
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Posted: Dec 27th 2011 8:22PM (Unverified) said

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Only one game will topple World of Warcraft and that is...World of Warcraft.

But they are doing a very good job at toppling it at the moment. Makes one wonder how many people are going to sit back and remember how they messed up so badly and take that into consideration in 2013 when Titan is tentavely scheduled to be released.

Posted: Dec 30th 2011 12:10AM Addfwyn said

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@(Unverified) Considering how long WoW has been the defining industry standard, when WoW eventually is killed (likely by the launch of Titan) I don't think people will really look at their next game the worse for it. "Hm, do I want to play the game by the folks that defined the genre for over 5 years? Nah, it must suck".

I always found it a bit more shocking with how long it took for WoW to decline to any notable degree, more than the fact that it finally is declining.
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