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Reader Comments (22)

Posted: Dec 27th 2011 8:52PM Alpoe said

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Everyone will then claim that he's [meant to be "they've?" always been a huge fan of the original Guild Wars.

I approve of your predictions as a whole. They seem the most logical and knowledgeable of the staff.

Posted: Jan 7th 2012 4:11AM Octahedron said

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@Alpoe But I am a fan, I promise! My first "real" MMO, though many disagree. Unfortunately I didn't have the attention span for it and i disliked some things about it, though i still greatly appreciate it's significance for me. Also, GW2 me want. Very, very much.

These objective predictions make me sad. Because many are probably right. I'd rather see WAR turn F2P or something, it could be so much more than it is
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Posted: Dec 27th 2011 9:24PM (Unverified) said

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I completely agree with Alpoe, your predictions seem to be the best and most objective.

While I have no issue with casual gaming and casual gamers, I do hope some games will go back to being immersive in nature. the downfall of WoW has been it's "casual" friendliness. Not the time casual, but what I think of as the Farmville-casual, the ones who don't care about story and just want rewards for 2 minutes worth of (minimal) effort. As a former fan of the Warcraft story, I was very sad to see Blizzard pretty much cut it out of the game to appeal to a segment who will never care when, or if, a WC4 or anything else Warcraft is ever released.

Posted: Dec 27th 2011 9:52PM Ocho said

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I am definitely part of that "everyone" statement. I have always been a fan of GW and will always give it very high marks... yet I've never gotten anywhere significant in playing it. This will change with GW2 where I plan to see everything.

Very nice predictions, from all the writers. I'll be interested to see how they all pan out at the end of 2012. :)

Posted: Dec 27th 2011 10:42PM Mikx said

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Mobas can branch out, its really their only hope. I've had more fun in Dawn of War 2's Retribution/Last Stand than I ever had in a traditional moba.

Posted: Dec 27th 2011 10:44PM Space Cobra said

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Very good set of predictions.

But Anarchy Online closing? It could, but I am doubting it, given the email I keep getting from my former account, some of the new updates, and the upcoming fan-convention. It'd be just "rude" to close it so soon with it's first con and a potential PR bomb, wouldn't it? ;P

I think GW2 will do well, but I'd like to see more of the game mechanics (actually play the game) and figure out how it plays.

Posted: Dec 27th 2011 11:44PM XD00175 said

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Interesting predictions. Rift will have to go F2P, and I think The Secret World will change to that model as well. Any of the few remaining declining MMOs will go free, leaving WoW and SWTOR as subs, plus a few odd others. I think Mists of Pandaria will do great with its new gameplay additions. I'm a bit disappointed that most of you thought GW2 won't do as well as hoped at launch, but I see where you're coming from.
Just my views on things.

Posted: Dec 28th 2011 2:47AM Protheus said

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I also agree that GW2 will do good. We all love F2P games and GW was my first love to MMO. When I get bored I just play GW again and have to say of all the MMO's I played I still like playing GW over and over again.

So I think GW2 will do just fine.

I also agree on CCP prediction, as I do not think it will be the hit they are expecting it to be. It will bring CCP in trouble and I also think it will effect Eve Online players.

WoW will go down in subs - not fast but steady - as many have said that the MoP is not really what we want it to be. People will maybe try it and then lose interest and go to SWTOR.

People that are leaving WoW for SWTOR (and played it for 2-3 months) will realize that the game is not much different then WoW - just different settings and a lot , a lot of voice talk. It took Blizzard like 7 years to get to the subs they have now, they have 7 years of experience in doing stuff to WoW, now SWTOR comes and we just need to see and wait as to what Bioware has in stock for us. Will SWTOR be the WOW killer everyone said it would be - I would say lets see in 7 years how many subs it has and then decide.

Aion F2P next year = just another game that you can try out, as for TERA - well I predict that that will also be a major FLOP. If you over-hyped a game and are unable to deliver = not good.

Well 2012 is going to be a very interesting year that I know for sure. Who will will.. we will have to sit back and enjoy the show that will hit us soon.

Posted: Dec 28th 2011 3:45AM Wisdomandlore said

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Who's saying Guild Wars 2 will be an instant best-seller? I think most fans expect solid sales, stellar reviews, and a lack of mainstream, blockbuster success. But I also think most fans are ok with that.

Posted: Dec 29th 2011 5:53AM Lenn said

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@Wisdomandlore Considering the fact that Guild Wars sold 7 million copies (iirc) divided by 4 (3 campaigns, one expansion), 1 million instantly sold copies of Guild Wars 2 doesn't seem to be too much of a stretch.
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Posted: Dec 28th 2011 3:46AM Seffrid said

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As others have said, I think Shawn's predictions are pretty accurate and they come across as objective - whereas as some of the other writers *cough* Beau *cough* are simply aiming their predictions in the direction they've been travelling personally in for some time even if that is against the tide of public opinion.

The one exception to Shawn's predictions I'd make is in respect of AO. It would the height of folly to close AO before or immediately after Secret World's launch as it would send entirely the wrong signals to the investors in that game. It's more likely that Funcom will offer a dual game package and that the success of SW may provide a boost for AO especially if the long-awaited graphics update sees the light of day this side of 2013.

I'll end with one of my own predictions - Deadalon will not find a game in 2012 that he enjoys or can bring himself to write positively about. No change there then!

Posted: Dec 28th 2011 7:11AM ShawnSchuster said

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@Seffrid
Yeah, tbh, the Anarchy Online one was the hardest for me to make, but I actually think TSW's success might spell the end for AO because Funcom's not afraid to reallocate dev talent to more important projects. Plus, Colin Cragg just left, and that's usually a scary situation (but not always). So I dunno, it's a longshot, but I certainly don't *want* AO to shut down.
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Posted: Dec 28th 2011 4:59AM SKYeXile said

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hope you're right about PS2.

Posted: Dec 28th 2011 10:19AM SolitudeZero said

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To the people predicting MoP to kill the "hardcore" WoW fanbase I say good riddance.

Being able to hang around town and pug into a raid on an alt without having to see the "hardcore" and "elitist" spouting, "LF1M dps for xraidzonex on reg, must have heroic achievement and 99999 gs. All upgrades are reserved for guild. We don't want to carry trash dps."

Those players I'll be glad to lose and never see again.

Posted: Dec 28th 2011 6:41PM (Unverified) said

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@SolitudeZero
By hardcore fan base, people are referring to the hardcore fan, the ones who made WoW what it is (was) and made Warcraft so popular.

In fact, it was always those who identified themselves as "casual" who did what you described more often. The ones you seem to like calling elitist didn't pug raids or dungeons. And the reason the "casuals" would make that requirement was because they wanted people who had done it before to give the group a reasonable chance of success.

Of course with the LFR in place, that has already gone by the way side and resolved that complaint. I guess you haven't used it yet.
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Posted: Dec 28th 2011 11:02AM Ergonomic Cat said

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I'm totally okay with SW:TOR being the security blanket. Everyone will play the hell out of it until they've done all 8 characters (really more like 16, if you count the AC's), meander a bit, then go try something new. 2 months later, there will be new storylines, so they'll jump in, spend a month noodling around, then go play something else.

I'd be really happy for TOR.

Also, no one mentioned Firefall at all in any predictions. That makes me sad.

Posted: Dec 28th 2011 11:58AM (Unverified) said

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Nah, Guild Wars 2 will fall and break its face due to its setting of high fantasy.

Posted: Dec 28th 2011 4:52PM wordup said

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@(Unverified) I can't tell if you're being serious or not, but I think GW2's setting will serve it very well indeed. You can say what you like about high fantasy, but it always has been, and will undoubtedly continue to be very popular. GW2's fantasy setting is also refreshingly divergent from the usual "Tolkein-esque" fare; it's world is filled with some pretty unique fauna, and it's civilisations as a whole feel more advanced (some are practically steampunk!). GW2 also sets itself apart from more "light-hearted" fantasy settings like WoW's by taking itself a little more seriously. I think if you look at it objectively, it's difficult to fault Anet's choice of game setting.
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Posted: Dec 28th 2011 6:46PM (Unverified) said

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Do you mean "steampunk" like WoW's goblins or gnomes?
Or fauna like in Rift?

Posted: Dec 29th 2011 6:17AM Lenn said

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@(Unverified) Steampunk as in Charr war machines and weaponry, and Asura technology.
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