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Reader Comments (8)

Posted: Dec 27th 2011 8:44PM (Unverified) said

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If WoW lost 1.7 million in the year following a new expansion and the release of new content, I highly doubt they will lose only a million more during a year where nothing new is being introduced. I expect a loss of around 2.5-3 million for WoW in 2012.

Also, considering Star Wars is already over a million, and they had 2 million in the beta, isn't the between 1 and 2 million prediction rather low for them? Seems like 3.5-4 million would be a little more realistic.

Posted: Dec 27th 2011 11:00PM Eliot Lefebvre said

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@(Unverified)

I would guess that you're right, both numbers are going to be higher
than what I said here. But my usual litmus test is whether or not I'd
feel comfortable with a hundred bucks riding on being right, and so I
played it a bit safer.
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Posted: Dec 27th 2011 11:32PM (Unverified) said

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@Eliot Lefebvre
I'm not a player of sci fi games generally and Star Wars isn't one I think I will ever play. But it seems that there were a lot of high expectations, some seemed to think it would overtake WoW (taking into account WoW's seeming permanent slide in subs).

What does Star Wars need to do, rough estimate, to be considered successful based on expectations, in your opinion? I've seen several of these predictions say that they expect 1-2 million tops for Star Wars and that seems as if it will be a failure. Not in profit terms, but a failure in meeting expectations.
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Posted: Dec 27th 2011 8:45PM Malaman said

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Finally someone talked about WildStar. Looks good, smooth and the graphics reminds me WoW. I looking for it... i'll wait to say and see something about this game.

Posted: Dec 27th 2011 10:13PM Space Cobra said

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Have to agree about re-using the SWG engine for something else.

You know what? I sorta have a hunch, that probably ain't true, that this will actually be the same game engine used in Everquest-Next. It would certainly take out lots of development time out of the equation for SOE and have them launch the game much faster.

They can tinker/add more things to it, like a different leveling system, a graphics update, and more.

Personally, I'd prefer another title to get the engine (Sci-Fi!), but I can see SOE overhauling it for EQ-Next for a more speedy launch.

Posted: Dec 27th 2011 11:02PM Eliot Lefebvre said

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@Space Cobra

I was originally tempted to posit the same thing... but EQN is already announced, and it was announced long before SWG's sad demise. I don't really have any predictions about EQN, mostly since Sony still hasn't said much of anything about it.
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Posted: Dec 28th 2011 12:05PM Daemodand said

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@Space Cobra I don't think SWG's engine is usable for much of anything, least of all a new title. Reading the forums, you see comments from devs about how much they can't do because of poor documentation left by the original developers, and apparently spaghetti code.

I do think Eliot's "SWG with the serial numbers filed off" prediction is quite possible, but if it happens it will be using a newer, saner engine to host the features SWG had.
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Posted: Jan 1st 2012 5:29PM ImperialPanda said

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I think GW2 will beat expectations. Not immediately of course (that's not how you beat expectations anymore), but in terms of post-launch sales. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say 1 million within 2 weeks of launch and 6 month sales of 4+ million.

Profit isn't quite as clear though. The shop needs to be different from what I see for GW1. More than anything, the biggest unknown about GW2 right now is what its cash shop will have. I'm fairly confident they have a game that will be surprisingly popular. But it can either be a good game that is really profitable, or it can be a good game that doesn't make s*%&.

And finally, RIP FFXIV. I'm confident PS3 ver. will not launch. There is just flat out no way. Despite what they say now, I think by June 2012 they will see the futility of it all. That launching it for PS3 will be a bigger embarassment than simply cancelling it.

I'm surprised they kept it on life support for this long, without a monthly sub or any income. It's absolutely insane what they've done and what they continue to do with this title.

I believe FFXIV will shutdown before the end of 2012.

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