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Reader Comments (89)

Posted: Nov 21st 2011 9:50PM Lucidus said

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@Distaste the post chapter 1 game.... /slitwrists
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Posted: Nov 22nd 2011 2:26AM Vagrant Zero said

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@Cavadus You're the kind of broken watch that isn't even right twice a day.
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Posted: Nov 22nd 2011 10:57AM (Unverified) said

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@edgecrusherO0

Even though Call of Duty sells well and makes lots of money, MW3 was a HUGE let down on so many levels for multi player. But they did make the game so noob friendly.
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Posted: Nov 22nd 2011 4:33PM JayDay said

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@Cavadus

"Yeah, once they actually play TOR they'll quickly realize it's going to bomb"

Translated: I never played TOR. OMG my nose is growing!
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Posted: Nov 23rd 2011 3:48AM Cavadus said

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@JayDay

I've been a beta tester since July, thanks.
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Posted: Nov 21st 2011 5:08PM (Unverified) said

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A recent survey of 381 gamers...

I'm sure Massively could generate a far larger sample size without even breaking a sweat.

Posted: Nov 21st 2011 5:17PM real65rcncom said

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@(Unverified)
while true, it's a survey so size only matters in some respects.

You know, kind of like when they have only about 5% of voters leaving a poll and saying "Who did you vote for?" and like magic, they are able to predict a winner almost every time reliably and even close polls early based on projections?

You may take issue with the number, but it's the science that matters.
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Posted: Nov 21st 2011 5:46PM Ghostspeaker said

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@(Unverified)

So long as the sample is representative, a sample size of 300 is only very slightly less accurate than a sample of 3,000.
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Posted: Nov 21st 2011 6:00PM silver001 said

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@Ghostspeaker Just to add, it all depends on where and how the survey was done.
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Posted: Nov 21st 2011 6:48PM Utakata said

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@(Unverified)

Hey look...another Gnome! O.O

...I think there's alot of speculation going around by everyone how well SWTOR will do and how it will effect WoW both in short term and long. I'll just say we won't know until SWTOR is released and what happens with it in the long term. I have my own predicitons...most which are negative on SWTOR's account, but they don't amount to a hill of beans until after the fact.

This is survey of 381 peeps predictions in conjuntion with both games. They could all be wrong.

@silver001

...also depends on what questions where being asked and how they where being phrased.
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Posted: Nov 21st 2011 5:14PM real65rcncom said

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Doh, forgot to say Jef.. this is a nice find.

It's always interesting to see how people think one game will affect another, although you rarely see people in professional positions state it in print. Always good to read opinion based on seasoned acumen.

Usually it's just comments like Cav wrote as fans of other rival games off of emotion :P

Posted: Nov 21st 2011 5:17PM toychristopher said

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ToR will do well because it looks like reskinned wow with cut-scenes and many wow players are looking for something else to play. ToR might be the perfect mix of the familiar and the new for them.

Posted: Nov 21st 2011 5:19PM edgecrusherO0 said

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Did we really need analyst to tell us that Blizz was going to take a financial hit with the release of SWToR?

Hell, it's pretty clear that Blizzard will continue a slow decline for a while, at least till MoP, and maybe even after that. Not saying it will die or anything, but I wouldn't be surprised if it dropped to below 9 million or less in the next 6 months (SWToR, GW2, TERA and a few other big tittle MMO's, not to mention DCUO is F2P, Earthrise is going F2P, Lineage 2 and some others are/will be going F2P as well).

The games age is showing, people want something new, and Blizzard has been making a number of poor design decisions (specifically releasing content at a snails pace and changing design strategies mid-expansion). With more big title games it's due to take a big hit. But not to worry, D3 and the SC2 expansion will boost them back up (specifically D3 with the RMAH).

Posted: Nov 22nd 2011 4:34PM Cavadus said

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I've beta tested the game since late July. It's just not very good.
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Posted: Nov 21st 2011 5:31PM Sleep Marshal said

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If you dig into the gamespot article Lazard Capital Markets says they made this decisions based on a study of 381. Now if that is a random sample its a bit small but not unreasonably so. Most political polls are of 600-1000 people.

Any ways Lizard says they expect "The study found that WOW's age, as well as increased competition, could lead to an exodus of 900,000 to 1.6 million players."

Now I've played wow for a long time and one thing I can tell you there are a lot of people pay for Warcraft that aren't playing Warcraft.
While some might shut off there Warcraft accounts for ToR many will not. So I wouldn't expect Blizzard total accounts lost to get this hit in the second Quarter of 2012.

Only time will tell if Blizzard has legs the real question is can they get Mists of Pandarea out before the 4th quarter of 2012 and I wouldn't bet on that. And with that lack of content they are most likely going to lose far more players than they will ever lose to ToR.

Posted: Nov 21st 2011 5:43PM Chambers said

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@Sleep Marshal


4th quater of 2012?! are you for real MOP is summer at the LATEST and i would almost bank on an easter release.... even if DW is content blocked in the same was ICC was it will be late jan when people get there first kills on DW in at the latest so your saying it will go for nine months without a major content patch? i think bliz learned from the whole ICC release sched and i cant see them repeating this again....
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Posted: Nov 21st 2011 5:52PM edgecrusherO0 said

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@Chambers

I wouldn't expect it out before the fall of 2012. Considering how little work has been done on it and how much they want to do (they will remove some features just like Path of the Titan was removed from Cata), there is no way they can get it shipped out as early as Easter. And having content out for a year isn't unprecedented. If I remember correctly, T6 content was out for around a year before Sunwell came out, and we had ICC for a full year of it being unlocked.

If they rush it out that early, it will show and will do much more harm than good. If it doesn't have the polish the rest of the game has, it will feel out of place, maybe causing some people to leave. If it doesn't have enough content, it will cause even more people to leave. If some of the big title features were taken out (specifically pet combat), others will likely leave. They rally need to do a bangup job on MoP if they want to maintain their high subscriber level. If they don', they're going to see a continual decline. But then again, I'm willing to bet that they have been preparing/prepared for that decline since the start of Cata (hence why, in my opinion, we've seen so many resources moved to other titles).
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Posted: Nov 21st 2011 6:15PM Sleep Marshal said

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@edgecrusherO0 I wrote blog post about blizzard using there less quality people for Warcraft a while ago http://grandoldpodcast.blogspot.com/2011/08/myths-and-truth-of-warcraft-b-team.html
I didn't have cataclysm credits at that time I wrote the article but at least at a leadership level Warcraft has been very stable keeping almost all there content leads. And every expansion as seen more people put to work on World of Warcraft.

There is just no evidences Blizzard is moving people off. That doesn't mean they haven't been high unstable as far as leaders, or that more people seems to be getting less work done. That does appear to be the cause but that is more of personal issue than a problem of stealing from Peter to pay Paul.
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Posted: Nov 28th 2011 2:23PM (Unverified) said

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@Sleep Marshal
What do you mean they have kept their content leads? Even Blizzard has said they haven't. Paul Samms in an interview earlier this year admitted that the people who created WoW no longer are on it.

http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/33209/Interview_Blizzard_COO_Sams_Says_Many_Years_In_Front_Of_WoW.php

"We've spent a lot of time over the last number of years transitioning those people off [of World of Warcraft], and having great people below them that were trained up by them to run World of Warcraft," Sams said. "Those people have been doing it for the last couple of years without the assistance of those people that created it."

Tigole and many others were moved off WoW just after BC. Wrath and Cataclysm, both the worse expansions Blizzard has done for WoW in terms of both content release and subscription numbers, have been done without the original people.

As for MoP being a summer release, sorry, not seeing it. For one thing, D3 has been pushed back till sometime after the new year. While I believe it will be January or February, if it's later, no way they will have competition between 2 of their titles.

Let's also not forget summer of 2012 will be 2 years since the first campaign of SC2 was released. Unless they are intending to go 3 years between releases of the campaigns, if not more, I see SC2 being much more likely to be a summer release. They won't want to release it right after a WoW expansion because for a year after there will be (at least should be) new content being released for it.

And as for them learning their lesson with ICC, I think the ridiculously pitiful content release so far with Cataclysm, and for a second straight expansion not even doing half the content they talked about during an expansions beta, shows they didn't learn the lesson. Not to mention the D3 giveaway for paying for a year of WoW is a telling sign that MoP will follow the standard 2 year, holiday release schedule of all 3 previous expansions (BC was intended for holiday of 2006, but being the first it was delayed till January of 2007).
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Posted: Dec 9th 2011 8:59AM Aelon said

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@Chambers

Wait, when did Blizzard learn this lesson?

I will never forget or forgive 1 full year of ICC raiding. Nevah! :p
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