| Mail |
You might also like: WoW Insider, Joystiq, and more

Reader Comments (130)

Posted: Aug 11th 2011 5:09PM Interitus said

  • 2 hearts
  • Report
@Sente Yes, but the emphasis seems to be on box sales.
Reply

Posted: Aug 11th 2011 2:47PM EndDream said

  • 3 hearts
  • Report
I am currently getting an MBA (Master's of Business Administration) at The University of Texas at Austin. I have done a few workshops with investment bankers and industry analysts and they all pull numbers out of their butt for their calculations. They joke about it in fact, constantly.

Posted: Aug 11th 2011 2:56PM PhelimReagh said

  • 2.5 hearts
  • Report
@EndDream
I highly doubt what you're saying. If they were just making numbers up they'd be wrong all the time, and no one would pay a nickel for their services.

Having spent many years in financial services firms, making up numbers is a guaranteed way to be out of a job and, based on the past decade or so, get sued and be brought up on criminal charges

You, sir, are full of it..
Reply

Posted: Aug 11th 2011 3:48PM Lucidus said

  • 2.5 hearts
  • Report
@PhelimReagh I'd like to point you in the direction of projected box sales for Dragon Age II...
Reply

Posted: Aug 11th 2011 4:05PM (Unverified) said

  • 2 hearts
  • Report
@EndDream Yes, you're very correct, and part of the response you're seeing is based on how well the financial industry has managed to convince people that much of what they do aren't just barely educated guesses.

All one has to do is peruse the Wall Street Journal on a given day to see that it's the experts that are mistaken about a great many things.
Reply

Posted: Aug 11th 2011 4:56PM EndDream said

  • 2.5 hearts
  • Report
@(Unverified) Indeed,

and don't get me wrong, they have sophisticated formulas that they can talk about for hours. But the inputs (variables) are very frequently vague guesses.

@PhelimReagh Just look at relying on analysts did for the world over the past few years. They were VERY wrong in their assumptions (i.e. inputs) about the quality of the packaged sub-prime mortgages. The rest is history, and most of them are still being paid well for the same jobs.

SWTOR could sell much more, or much less for all I know, but I wouldn't put too much faith in analysts.
Reply

Posted: Aug 12th 2011 12:25AM (Unverified) said

  • 2 hearts
  • Report
@EndDream

Eh, not really. The REALLY smart analists knew what was coming, only the ones that were benevolent and who tried to warn the public and the world were ignored or their message trivialised, while the ones who cared about their own - and who maybe contributed to the whole shaky system - just cashed in and jumped ship before the crash struck.
So yes, the smart ones may not always be right, but they're more right than most other people and they use it to their advantage.

Elaborate and researched and tried formulas do not make you a fortune teller or an oracle, but when used as tools in the hands of capable analists, they can help make more accurate trend predictions than 'John Doe' future predictions.
Reply

Posted: Aug 11th 2011 2:47PM dudes said

  • 2 hearts
  • Report
A shame they are so paranoid about not getting sales figures it takes some of the hyper buzz away from the game.

Posted: Aug 11th 2011 3:49PM Lucidus said

  • 2 hearts
  • Report
@dudes They've got some bad design decisions that are locked in. I'd be worried too if I was in charge of $100M+ of EA's money.
Reply

Posted: Aug 11th 2011 7:27PM coledognz said

  • 2 hearts
  • Report
@Lucidus Even though they will do better than breaking even with even just $50 x 3,000,000 which is a very bad and rough calculation due to price differences between the different versions available.
Reply

Posted: Aug 11th 2011 2:57PM rhorle said

  • 2 hearts
  • Report
That number is WAY below the Cataclysm 4.7. Remember they are saying 3 million in the first year. Cataclysm sold 3.3 million in the first 24 hours. And the 4.7 was cataclysms first month. Its funny the time frame for WoW was left out. Once you consider WoW sold 1.7 more copies then is predicted for TOR to sell in a year it makes the difference even larger.

Posted: Aug 11th 2011 3:01PM rhorle said

  • 2 hearts
  • Report
@rhorle

Supposed to be "wow sold 1.7 more copies in the first month then is predicted for TOR to sell in its first year."

It certainly is nice for TOR to sell a ton, but its not really an amazing or shocking number by any means.
Reply

Posted: Aug 11th 2011 3:21PM Grumms said

  • 2.5 hearts
  • Report
@rhorle You are comparing a 6 year old game to a game that hasn't released. You argument is invalid
Reply

Posted: Aug 11th 2011 3:21PM Grumms said

  • 2 hearts
  • Report
@Grumms your*
Reply

Posted: Aug 11th 2011 3:30PM Khalus said

  • 3 hearts
  • Report
@rhorle

You're forgetting though, that Cataclysm was an expansion to an already well established MMO, with a huge subscription base, so massive sales numbers should be expected.

Day one sales in the US for Vanilla WoW was 250k, then 350k a week later. Including EU they hit around 900k total for holiday 2004 sales. {omitting other countries cause SW:TOR is only launching in US & EU as far as we know for now.}

Only time will tell what SW:TOR does for the first day, week, and total holiday 2011...
Reply

Posted: Aug 12th 2011 10:39AM rhorle said

  • 2 hearts
  • Report
@rhorle

I'm not forgetting anything, I was commenting on the difference in time period on the two game sale figures the author of the article mentioned. And how if they wanted to make a point they could have easily mentioned the 24 hour sales record instead of just the one month figure.
Reply

Posted: Aug 11th 2011 2:57PM Reveyah said

  • 3 hearts
  • Report
Cataclysm already had an established playerbase if your going to compare it to wow compare it to the first 1, also i think its going to do a lot better then anyone expects

Posted: Aug 11th 2011 2:58PM Deadend said

  • 2.5 hearts
  • Report
"However, if anyone is keeping score at home, that number is still below the 4.7 million sales of World of Warcraft: Cataclysm -- though it's quickly catching up."
That was a bit of a low blow comparing the sales of a expansion pack for an established MMO to the predicted sales of new MMO.

Posted: Aug 11th 2011 2:58PM Bladerunner83 said

  • 3 hearts
  • Report
There will be nay-sayers, but SWTOR will be as big as WoW, if not bigger.

They have an awesome IP with well over 10 million people that like.

Bioware is the master of story driven games, just look at their past RPG titles.

EA has sunk over 100 million dollars into it.

The hype is everywhere, I see SWTOR advertised all over the place.

When AAA is used to categorizes games, SWTOR is a perfect example. This game is an honor student with a 4.0 GPA.

From my personal opinion, Bioware is the only company that can compete with Blizzard; compared to quality of games and financial stability.

Another thing people need to consider is the fact that we are in a recession. Entertainment is one of those things you can avoid when you need to pay your bills. Right now money is tight, so I haven't purchase SWTOR yet, but I plan to. When I do the game will already be release, (next year hopefully) and people will already be playing it. I guarantee they will have my money, just not yet. I have a couple of friends that are doing the same thing, they plan on waiting until the time of release. I'm not surprised at the pre-order sales and I know it will only get better.


Posted: Aug 11th 2011 3:33PM Khalus said

  • 2 hearts
  • Report
@Bladerunner83

"plan on waiting until the time of release. I'm not surprised at the pre-order sales and I know it will only get better."

You do know that EA is having a rather limited launch on purpose to help deal with server overloading and queues. There may not be copies avail come launch, so you might want to pre-order now if there are still copies avail.

Granted, I'm sure there will be more copies a few weeks later, but still, ya never know!
Reply

Featured Stories

Engadget

Engadget

Joystiq

Joystiq

WoW Insider

WoW

TUAW

TUAW