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Reader Comments (62)

Posted: Apr 25th 2011 4:49PM goatfoam said

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I think in terms of box sales we might see records being smashed, purely because I can see a lot of non-MMO players going for this one as well as the typical themepark crowd.

Subscribers though? That's going to depend wholly on whether the game is good or bad.

Posted: Apr 25th 2011 5:43PM CCon99 said

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Reaching 1 million won't be so hard for SWTOR, it's maintaining a million that is the tough part. I think they'll be just fine.

Posted: Apr 25th 2011 6:51PM mysecretid said

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@CCon99

Agreed.

And the problem with predictions like this is that, if SW:TOR now falls anywhere short of 1 million subs, there is a whole phalanx of trolls just waiting out there to pronounce it a failure. ("They /said/ it was gonna be ...")

Don't you just love the internets?
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Posted: Apr 25th 2011 4:53PM Trmn8r said

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OMG this article is a joke! All these commentors are dumb too! Everyone's like, "well I dont know if they will make it to 1 million". Are you kidding me? It's freakin Star Wars! They will easily pass that mark. Heck Galaxies got over 1 million and that game was complete garbage! Fail thread.

Posted: Apr 25th 2011 5:26PM Triskelion said

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@Trmn8r How many subs does SWG have now? To your point - they'll attract a lot of people because its "Star Wars", but will they keep them?
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Posted: Apr 25th 2011 5:28PM Vgk said

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@Trmn8r
You got to keep in mind the MMO genre is much more competitive, I have no doubt in my mind that they'll make it to 1 million, I'd be willing to bet my rig on that, but the real question is what will happen after the first month.
A lot of MMO's make it to a million or well over it but not many of them maintain that million two or three months in.

Keep in mind we're missing knowledge on how TOR will be as far as end game goes, how many PvP BG's etc.
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Posted: Apr 25th 2011 5:45PM Trmn8r said

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@Vgk
Then the whole point of the analysts report is stupid. Nobody knows how well a game will perform. So basically they are saying that it is attainable? Well duh, of course its attainable and IMO is will happen. There's no way they won't reach it at launch, but yes will they sustain it? That is left to question, but this is Bioware and Star Wars we are speaking about. Bioware has one of the best track records of all game companies as far as quality goes. And Star Wars is the most popular fictional universe that I know of. It will be fine.
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Posted: Apr 25th 2011 6:39PM (Unverified) said

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@Trmn8r : I have never seen a credible source for SW:G peaking at more than about 300,000 subscribers. If you've got one, let's see it.
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Posted: Apr 25th 2011 6:56PM Trmn8r said

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@(Unverified)
Perhaps I worded it wrong, I intended it to mean sales. http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/6303/Star_Wars_Galaxies_Reaches_1_Million_In_Sales.php
As far as subscribers go take a game like Rift for example of achieving 1 million and SWTOR I can guarantee you will attain a higher count than Rift unless it is utterly unplayable at launch. Would love to see that coming from Bioware hah!
Source for Rift http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/33208/Rift_Reaches_Over_1_Million_Registered_Accounts.php
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Posted: Apr 25th 2011 9:29PM The Ogre said

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@Triskelion

"To your point - they'll attract a lot of people because its "Star Wars", but will they keep them? "

Probably not - there is precious little recognizable as "Star Wars" to the average and casual fan in this game, from the looks of the promotional material, and therefore very little to keep those who came for a Star Wars experience.
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Posted: Apr 25th 2011 4:53PM CCon99 said

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Reaching 1 million won't be so hard for SWTOR, it's maintaining a million that is the tough part. I think they'll be just fine.

Posted: Apr 25th 2011 6:14PM Graill440 said

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This response has nothing to do with the game, instead i focus on the contractor. Anyone that has had to deal with these third party contractors knows the deal, they are yes "men", they laugh and spin and present graphs and charts during presentations from their own subcontractors telling the client what they want to hear. Suddenly this is now law and can be printed because it was contracted out, it was a study! Sorry i use the term contract, contractor, subcontractor because its so much more antiseptic and not as glorified as the buzzwords current research firms use.

Rubbing that genie in the bottle hoping it will come out isnt a bad thing, hope is always good, wrapping it in "official" studies and then publishing them as law and the intent to garner more fan following regardless of the product quality (no one knows what the end product will perform like) and build hype is unethical, a term no developer is familiar with.

In the end its simply better to state that once they do the best job they can, prepare support for the people that are willing to take a chance and subscribe and have customer service in place to handle all forseeable problems, "they" hope to attain 1 million plus initial subs and increase this number due to satisfied customers and exceptional customer service in handling problems. *LAUGH*

Ya i wasnt being serious on that last paragraph, grin.

Posted: Apr 25th 2011 6:26PM Xilithi said

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Stop speculating and just let the game do what it does... I'm getting tired of this one million number, has the history of MMO's not taught us that subscriptions are a rising part of a successful MMO having 500k-1M at the get go proves nothing and then retention becomes the problem, I'd rather a game start with 50k, and work its way up to 500k...

Posted: Apr 25th 2011 6:41PM HokieKC said

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Will TOR sell 1 million copies in the first 4-6 weeks...yes. Will TOR maintain more than 500k subscriptions six months after release...probably not.

Posted: Apr 25th 2011 7:02PM real65rcncom said

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ahh analysts...

"Warhammer Online is getting a ton of attention at the moment and it's a certainly that the Mythic Entertainment-Electronic Arts MMO will be near or at the top of the top 10 best selling PC games when results are released in a couple of weeks. But will the game hold onto its initial surge? A financial analyst seems to say, "No".

Edge Online stated that Arvind Bhatia at Stern Agee has predicted that the game will settle with between 250,000 and 300,000 subscribers after the first six months or so. He also states after in checking with retailers, sales of the game have met, but not exceeded, expectations.Agee predicts Warhammer Online will bring in between $55 million and $60 million in revenue for September."
------------------------------------
I love analysts. They are usually right with the short term, not so good with the long term.

Posted: Apr 25th 2011 7:03PM JanChel said

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As long as it works and is not a full of bugs at launch there shouldn't really be a problem. Too bad really that the sandboxy Star Wars MMO didn't take off. Plenty of likable ideas, just horrible and awkward execution.

Let's hope this 2nd time they get it right. Last time, Star Wars got beat by a little studio called snow storm or something. For Lucas, I would just hate to get beaten again by someone called summer breeze or whatever. All stealin' your thunder and whatnot.

Posted: Apr 26th 2011 2:34PM RogueJedi86 said

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@JanChel

This is the third time, did you forget about Clone Wars Adventures, the little F2P SW MMO that coincides with the cartoon? It kinda went under the radar after commenters here declared it not to be an MMO. It was also made by SOE, same as SWG.
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Posted: Apr 25th 2011 7:33PM DarkWalker said

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Hitting 1 million in sales should be fairly easy for EA+Bioware. I wouldn't find it strange if initial sales were even double that - plenty of Star Wars fans will check out the game even if they have no idea what it's about.

Keeping 1 million subs would depend on how good a job Bioware does with the game. For the moment I have my doubts. I myself will buy the game, but if it plays the way I think it will do, I will get a couple characters to max level to see the story and move on to GW2.

Why GW2? Free respecs. Free remote guild chat and AH. Instant travel. Individual loot. Non random dungeon loot. All characters able to fulfill all roles. Almost as many color options as in the Sims 3. Level field Arena PvP. Free and instant server transfers. Easy shifting in levels to enable different leveled characters to play together. No subscription. And so on.

Unless SW:TOR implements some of those, it would need to be so much better than GW2 for me to stick to it, I don't think that quality level is even attainable in a game. At the bare minimum, GW2 should enable me to play with any real life friend who also plays the game any time we want, no mater which character class he did chose, what level he is, or what server he prefers to play on. I don't think SW:TOR will be able to match that.

Posted: Apr 25th 2011 7:48PM MarkLIVE said

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I believe they'll have way more than 1m subs easy! Just dont blow it like rift w/ a 33% drop rate in sub's after the 1st month...lol, fail.

Posted: Apr 25th 2011 9:36PM Vgk said

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@MarkLIVE ha, RIFT failed? Where have you been Rift's retention after the first month isn't top notch but it did way better than most MMO's have, both WAR and Age of Conan lost about 2 thirds of their playerbase after the first month. Rift's retention of about 70% of their playerbase after the first month is amazing. SW:TOR should be hoping to have the kind of playerbase retention that Rift did
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