Analyst says one million subscribers are attainable for SWTOR

At the Electronic Arts fourth-quarter shareholders conference earlier this year, CEO John Riccitiello stated this about his soon-to-be-released MMORPG Star Wars: The Old Republic: "At half a million subscribers, the game is substantially profitable, but it's not the kind of thing we would write home about. Anything north of a million subscribers, it's a very profitable business." This has been questioned by fans and shareholders alike as all wonder whether the game could actually reach the goal of one million subscribers. According to Janco analyst Mike Hickey, the answer is yes!

Gaming business website Gamasutra quoted Hickey as saying that Janco "suspect[s] a willingness from investors to believe [500,000] to 1 million Star Wars MMO subscribers is an attainable target." Hickey has been focused on games and the gaming industry for some time now, specifically on EA, so the rise and fall of EA-published Warhammer Online cannot be off his radar when he makes his predictions about SWTOR. Ultimately, Hickey states that one million subscribers will mean $161.9 million in gross sales and up to $35 million in total profit for EA if his prediction is true.

Although there is still no exact release date for Star Wars: The Old Republic, we will know how close to the mark Hickey's prediction is when the game launches later this year.

Reader Comments (62)

I guess we will see in the Fall huh?

The analysts you have to worry about are the ones who work for Wall Street and rate the stock of EA.

count me in, I'll subscribe as soon as I get paid (just got a new job =D)

Seems like we've had this discussion/argument before.

@Bartlebe

haha over TOR? Never, this is the internet you know.

Can we at least wait till the game has a price on the box before we crown the game as the messiah?

@Yellowdancer

I find your lack of faith disturbing.

@Rayko

The higher the expectation,the greater the deception.

I could see this happening but the trick is keeping the 1 million for the long term.

"Analyst says one million subscribers are attainable for SWTOR."

Millions of gamers and Star Wars nuts worldwide, drooling in anticipation, say "well, duh!"

I'm not sure it takes an "analyst" to predict that Bioware + Star Wars = potential.

I don't doubt that the game will make a profit; I'm just worried what that success will mean for the genre.

Hmm! Look at what they did to Ellyrion in that photo. ;0)

It is attainable but is it "sustainable"?

When I first heard about this mmo I was super excited about it and its potential but as more and more hype ... um ... press coverage has been shown I for some reason have become less and less enthusiastic about it.

Honestly at this stage I couldn't give a hoot about projected subscriber numbers/profit margins and its not like every mmo that is released these days doesn't ever do this exact same prediction /sigh I think the only thing that may spark a bit of interest from me at the moment is a release date announcement but even that won't rekindle my earlier enthusiasm.

There is no doubt I will try it when it releases and I may well even enjoy it but at the moment its just meh!

Is this prediction any more accurate than betting on a horse race? What is Hickey basing his 1 million number on?

Has he seen the finished product or played the game extensively enough to have an opinion about it? I hope the game is successful and I hope it is a great MMO, It would be a major disappointed if it falls flat or doesn't live up to expectations.

The last Star Wars game I played was Jedi Knight 2: Jedi Outcast, which was very good. I'm not especially a huge fan of the Star Wars IP but a good Star Wars game is worth playing. So I will be among the 1 million checking this game out!

Just curious; how many MMOs have these analysts played? They do realize that the genre is totally stagnant? Right?

I can see SWTOR hitting 1 MIL, I cannot see them holding 1 MIL.

@Triskelion
I agree - did anyone else check out this "Janco" site? You know, the source of the information?
It looks like some po-dunk wannabe site including links for both games research and investment banking. In fact, the gentleman quoted in the article has his own page of stock predictions... with his phone number on top. Can't get much more inexperienced than making a wild-haired guess about the performance of an MMO and then leave your number around for the fans.

And even if they are legit - there are many, many more reputable firms involved in the same line of work who's numbers and predictions are recognized and trusted throughout the MMO community. Why is this news coming from a site built with Frontpage 98?

Well, duh?

Mr. Foot? Meet Mr. Glock.

Thank you for such great predictions from those same type of analysts who helped our US economy grow up to be as strong as it is today!!

How was your research done sirs? "Why, we just asked pre-pubescent boys if they think Leia is hawt and conclude SW: ToR will be HUGE!!!"

Next

So the assumption is that a subscriber will pay around $162 on average for the duration of their play time with the game.

Unless they will have some item shop to cover some of that it would mean that they expect on average that a player stays for maybe 9 months - or at least pays for that much.

It sounds a bit optimistic to me, but time will tell.

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Analyst says one million subscribers are attainable for SWTOR

Reader Comments (62)

Posted: Apr 25th 2011 3:35PM MrGutts said

Posted: Apr 25th 2011 3:37PM DarkSonata said

Posted: Apr 25th 2011 3:40PM Bartlebe said

Posted: Apr 25th 2011 3:41PM MrGutts said

Posted: Apr 25th 2011 3:45PM Yellowdancer said

Posted: Apr 25th 2011 4:03PM Rayko said

Posted: Apr 25th 2011 11:27PM Valdur said

Posted: Apr 25th 2011 3:47PM SaintV said

Posted: Apr 25th 2011 3:48PM Lenn said

Posted: Apr 25th 2011 3:58PM Keen and Graev said

Posted: Apr 25th 2011 4:02PM Gildas said

Posted: Apr 25th 2011 5:08PM Taawa said

Posted: Apr 25th 2011 4:12PM Dirame said

Posted: Apr 25th 2011 4:19PM Balraw said

Posted: Apr 25th 2011 4:22PM Poordevil said

Posted: Apr 25th 2011 4:23PM Triskelion said

Posted: Apr 26th 2011 5:11AM BadTrip said

Posted: Apr 25th 2011 4:28PM Mystal said

Posted: Apr 25th 2011 4:40PM (Unverified) said

Posted: Apr 25th 2011 4:45PM Sente said

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