| Mail |
You might also like: WoW Insider, Joystiq, and more

Reader Comments (26)

Posted: Dec 29th 2010 8:07PM MMOaddict said

  • 2 hearts
  • Report
I don't see ANY current FTPs, with the exception of LOTRO of course, becoming as good as AAA titles. they all, every one of them, miss that certain something that makes games like WoW, EQ2, Lotro etc. stand out. Also after seeing Rift, very long videos of GW2 and awesome reports from friends in the SWTOR beta, subscription games will still dominate the year, as they should.

However, I'm not opposed to triple A games becoming FTP, but only IF they do it exactly or better than LOTRO has done. EQ2s foray into FTP is NOT the way to do it.

Posted: Dec 29th 2010 8:28PM Fakeassname said

  • 3 hearts
  • Report
@MMOaddict

I believe he is referring to AAA titles that are specifically designed to be F2P (like Vindictus) becoming more prevalent, not F2P conversions like Turbine, Cryptic, and SOE.

which is kind of laughable because that statement is clearly designed to promote their impending release of APB (same with the predictions about anti-hacking) which it's self will be a f2p conversion.

now that I think about it this entire list is about APB.

points #1 and #2 are about how their acquisition of APB will become seen as a milestone in the development of the F2P business model.

point #3 is hinting at a possible port of APB to the ipad to generate hype for the game, even though they will never follow through with it.

points #4 and #5 are to reassure former APB players that they will not be re-burned by the re-release with botters and buying a boxed game that they can not play anymore.

point # 6 is trying to say: so what if we are small, it's not the size that counts but how you use it!
Reply

Posted: Dec 30th 2010 8:29AM Ocho said

  • 2 hearts
  • Report
@MMOaddict: Don't forget that GW2 will not have a subscription. Buy once/cash shop for extras model just like GW1. But I get your point, there is a certain quality most of the $15/month games have that make the recuring fee worth it...
Reply

Posted: Dec 30th 2010 12:35PM shockologist said

  • 2 hearts
  • Report
@Fakeassname
did apb kick you in the shin or something?
Reply

Posted: Dec 29th 2010 8:14PM Fakeassname said

  • 2 hearts
  • Report
Way to wave your own flag.

why not just say "everything is going to be super for US!" I'm a f2p player myself, so in a way these predictions kinda of swing in my favor, but I hardly believe that there will be no negatives for f2p gamers in 2011 and predicting the end of botters/ hackers/ a and private servers is absurd. anything made by the hands of man can be unmade by them as well, it's good to say "we are making progress with combating illicit activities" but trying to sound like your somehow going to magically win the war on piracy with your new security software is just going to paint a big ass target on your back for hackers to aim at.

just look at how well a stance like that worked for Ubisoft.

if your going to make predictions, you need to retain at least a little bit of reality in them.

Posted: Dec 29th 2010 8:37PM Ozmodan said

  • 2 hearts
  • Report
While f2p is his medium of choice, I think he is pretty much tooting his own horn. The problem with all his f2p games, the games are unending money pits if you want to keep up and remain competitive.

His company is well known for lack of customer support, saying they are getting tough with cheaters and exploiters is nice, but considering past history I have a lot of doubt in that area also.

The "AAA" games will continue to be subscription or at worst use the freemium model that Lotro uses, not the typical item shop merchandise used by GamersFirst games.

As to mobile devices, until they develop better battery technologies, I don't see it happening, my smartphone does not last more than 3 or 4 hours if I have games running on it.

Posted: Dec 29th 2010 8:53PM Utakata said

  • 2 hearts
  • Report
I have already "democratized" GamersFirst by chosing not to play any of their games. Just saying...

Posted: Dec 29th 2010 10:19PM Bladerunner83 said

  • 2 hearts
  • Report
Well Rahul Sandil, good luck with that prediction. Trends fade away, some slowly and some just disappear off the face of the planet, a good example would be Bell Bottom pants, where did they go? Subscription is a beast that will never die, it may weaken, but we all know it's the best way to make money on an MMO. Blizzard vs. Gamerfirst, guess who is going to be standing when the dust clears, lol. I don't see a lot of PC games embracing F2P either, its mostly IPod or IPad apps, freaking thousands of them; Once more all claiming to be free but when you download, guess what...come visit this item mall to buy these little things, so you can buy other things in the game to make it fun. What happened to free, looks like it's just a ruse to worm its way into your brain. And that ladies and gents is the problem with F2P, they say its free but it's not and when you try to make it fun you need to buy crap to make it fun. Subscriptions you know how much your paying a month, no matter what, and you get 100% of the content to do with as you please. What about longevity? The majority of long running MMOs are and still are subscription based games. If "everyone" is swinging over to the F2P then why are games that are 10+ years old still using sub. based model. If you want killer games and new creative ideas, stick with a sub model, it separates the real games from the hollow games. I know there are World of Warcraft haters out there, but that MMO has literally changed the way we traditionally played MMOs; It is the only game worth playing, quality, integrity, reliability, continuously new "original" content and a cult collective, why choose anyone else? It may sound silly but I follow the 3 Bs; Bioware, Blizzard and Bethesda, because they have been producing quality games these last few years. Fallout Online is in the works too, so I will probably be watching Interplay; That will be AAA if not better.

Posted: Dec 30th 2010 10:08AM notuba said

  • 3 hearts
  • Report
@Bladerunner83 I would love to be able to read what you wrote, but you've been voted down and now your post is light gray on bright white, and I cannot read that bullshit color combination.

Joystiq, why the fuck can comments be voted down and then unable to be read? This is essentially a FORUM. If you don't agree with what someone said, then reply to their comment and voice your opposition. This comment system here is fucking bullshit. I hate this ridiculous website since it's Joystiq makeover/takeover. So do lots and lots of your previously loyal readers. You idiots obviously can't learn from your mistakes. You fucks operate your website like F2P publishers operate their websites, with ZERO integrity. Joystiq (still) epic FAIL!
Reply

Posted: Dec 30th 2010 1:54PM Dutzu said

  • 2 hearts
  • Report
@notuba
I agree completely. I can't believe ppl that make these decisions can hold on to their jobs. And that they still persevere in this after some time has passed.
Reply

Posted: Dec 29th 2010 10:40PM cray said

  • 2 hearts
  • Report
As much as Rahul Sandil was tooting his own horn, I would not be surprised or shocked if half of his predictions come true. Obviously the market is changing as we've seen quite few top tier MMOs switch their payment plans around. I think we'll see more jockeying around until the market stabilizes or crashes.

I also agree mobile gaming will be increasingly more popular when Tablets become as affordable as netbooks. This is going to be a big market because there's no one game dominating the market like WoW does with PCs.

I do think with Steam's presence on Mac PCs that there will be slight increase in sales of digital distributed games, with that comes a greater chance of smaller independent developers getting more attention, but I think it's going take awhile. There's still a lot of gamers who feel more comfortable buying the shelf copy.

These predictions are not off base, I just think they are gonna take time to happen.

Posted: Dec 29th 2010 11:56PM ImperialPanda said

  • 2 hearts
  • Report
I was gonna post about how getting "predictions" from gamersfirst is ridiculous, but it seems that's not necessary.

I'll just point out that massively should probably apply a little more common sense to choosing where they get their info. While it does say that it's from GamersFirst, any real (or a little more professional) publication would've disclosed that gamersfirst has a significant vested interest in F2P mmos being successful - to put it lightly. After all, the article here does not give a reader with no background knowledge any indication that it's anything less than truthful objective predictions.

Posted: Dec 29th 2010 11:58PM ImperialPanda said

  • 2 hearts
  • Report
@ImperialPanda

Ignore. I skipped the first paragraphs and just went to the bullet points... :/ I miss mah edit button.
Reply

Posted: Dec 30th 2010 1:15AM The Minn said

  • 2 hearts
  • Report
I really think F2P games just need a great economist to tell the company how to sell each item. with the right pricing F2P games can work. I'm fine with 15/month as it is not a big deal for me but others are different.

Posted: Dec 30th 2010 2:23AM SgtBaker1234556 said

  • 2 hearts
  • Report
Hmm. I generally see three types of MMO's emerging

The first are the hordes of bad F2P games that are barely MMO's . They all have cash shops Cut-Me-Own-Throat Dibbler would be proud of and all of them dreaming of Zynga dreams.

The second are F2P indie games Beau writes about quite often. They are often original in their designs but developed/published by small studios so some sort of F2P+ cash-up scheme fits their bill perfectly. These cash shops are often less invasive and better designed than the shops in category above.

Then we have the so called "AAA"-titles are still either sub-based or "freemium", with optional "sub"-type scheme that gets the whole game unlocked.

I believe he might be right saying we'll be overrun by F2P MMO's of the first type next year. Everyone wants a piece of the Facebook crowd after all and "clicker-training games" seems to be the thing for the "casual" crowd, so I believe the first category will be saturated with games that look similar and share strangely alike game mechanics.

This will also be the category that will move to mobile devices, because they quite often are tied to Facebook.

I don't believe it will much affect the AAA or the F2P indie market for "hardcore" gamers. I have hard time seeing Blizzard producing a crappy FarmVille clone or CCP abandoning their precious sandbox.

Posted: Dec 30th 2010 6:27AM Graill440 said

  • 2 hearts
  • Report
•Free2Play MMO's take over the video game market –
No they will Not. First the Misbranding is just that F2P does not exist. You have MMT or nothing, people are not in the business of not making money. Hard head, soft ass, These people are to addled from lookig at the kings new clothes.

•Free2Play becomes a hub for AAA Titles –
Wont happen. One, for the above reason and two it costs massive amounts of cash to make a "AAA Title" F2P beside being a misbrand will not bring in enough revenue and if by "just" buying the box or a comic to support it, it was never The misbranded F2P in the first place.

•Hard Core Games Move to Mobile Devices –
I see this happening though severly dumbed down for the devices. That and the workplace will be destroyed (grin)

•Security Lockdown for MMO's –
A good thing.

•Digital Distribution is the new box –
A no brainer, hopefully the cash the distributors save can be passed on.........but i doubt it.

•Democratization of online games
Hmm, the big wigs are already irrelevant. Niche games are already popular. And we get to have choice? like that is something new? Are the devs that ignorant or that clueless that they feel the way of the future for gamers will be "More choice"? The reason so many of these dev turds that fail is because we consumers decide whether or not they will, and have been, and will continue to do so, regardless of some recent epiphany by an addled developer.

Posted: Dec 30th 2010 7:13AM Karacan said

  • 2 hearts
  • Report
Sorry, I was briefly a customer of Gamersfirst when they "took over" (hah) Acclaim's 9Dragons.

Security? Oh please. Even Acclaim's servers haven't been as hacked and shredded to pieces as G1s.

Thanks, I'll stay with the competition.

Posted: Dec 30th 2010 9:23AM Kendu said

  • 2 hearts
  • Report
I'd like to see MMO market forecasts by market specialists not by companies directly involved in F2P MMO developement, that because I'd prefer an impartial source.
For instance: I remember few months ago Turbine stating that they doubled their revenues since DDO and LoTRO went F2P...
I think that it is normal for companies to speak good words to advertize their products, but as said above I need impartial statements before making myself an idea about a product or a trend.

I think that F2P it's a good alternative to keep alive a game, but except of the great and wise NCSoft business model used in GW, I believe that true money and success can be achieved only through subscription (...for a great product, of course).

Before the world economics crysis of these years this matter was less obvious, there were many subscription games and many F2P ones (mainly coming from eastern market).
Economics crysis changed alot the way people is likely to spend their money in entertainment activities.
Let's speak straight: today subscription gaming true success is for just 1 game in the whole planet, some still last (AoC, STO, CoH, Aion, SWG, FE, and few more...) but they can run into F2P conversion at any time in the near future.

As a gamer/customer I can only say that I'm really sick of item shops, cosmetic stuff and quest packs.
They say that F2P can deliver a-la-carte gaming experience.... I say that when I log into a MMO I want to feel myself entering a true virtual world, a digital trip to a fabulous land full of freedom and adventure.... well I can ony find that in a subbed game.

I was a LOTRO player once... today, let's say the truth: speaking to a NPC which promts you to buy a quest pack in the shop....it's pretty odd, and sad folks!
...Indeed I quit playing LoTRO after F2P because it is not more that charming experience that once it was.
ALso I had to unsubscribe from their mail news as I was still gettin' my mailbox full of advertising about price drops for that uber mount or for double XP!!!!

Maybe it's just my personal point of view and on the contrary all guys are mad for F2P and item shops??... I don't think so.
I believe that many left converted games because they dont like that too-much-commercial-feeling that you now breath in those games.

I need some genuine recreation while playing a MMO, not feeling myself as walking in a mall on saturday afternoon.

That's why I don't believe at Turbine's shouted miracle at all. I believe we are going to see a robust fragmentation of MMO market as we'll have so many F2Ps in the future... F2Ps will be a nice option for avoid a game death or to promote a new game from an indie emerging company, but above all... there will still be just one blizzy solid rock to deserve our montly fee.

One last thought, MMO console gaming: I think that should probabily grow as what is going to be the next real big challange... I don't think that DCUO will be a blizz-like success of course but it will finally bring console into current MMO gaming, I hope that could shake the MMO industry and make it move to a new important stage.

Happy New Year everyone!

Posted: Dec 30th 2010 10:08AM Lateris said

  • 2 hearts
  • Report
The dollar may crash in 2011 so it may all be mute. On the other hand I really hope the ipad increases in ability with each new generation that is released. I would love to play Eve Online on it. Battery technology is increasing in the lab. F2P is a market trend. Studios who convert or take this on have to release content on the fly in the western market. Indie studios- love them!

Posted: Dec 30th 2010 10:42AM Superman0X said

  • 2 hearts
  • Report
With the exception WoW F2P (with monthly fees) has theen the largest part of the Western Market for a few years now. So, predicting that this will happen, years afterwards, is a bit of a letdown.

This would be like predicting that FPS are going to be a major sucess in console sales (Halo, MW, Black Ops anyone).

Featured Stories

MMO Week in Review: It is your Destiny

Posted on Jul 27th 2014 6:00PM

One Shots: The green marble

Posted on Jul 27th 2014 10:00AM

Engadget

Engadget

Joystiq

Joystiq

WoW Insider

WoW

TUAW

TUAW