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Reader Comments (33)

Posted: Jun 17th 2010 12:12PM yeppers said

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The only thing STO has to fear is the ghost of Gene Roddenberry.

Posted: Jun 17th 2010 12:39PM (Unverified) said

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That's not true. I would say STO's two biggest concerns should be Cryptic and Atari.
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Posted: Jun 17th 2010 12:16PM Shadanwolf said

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Competition makes all competitors better.....and the consumer the winner.

Posted: Jun 17th 2010 6:44PM Saker said

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A nice sentiment but the corporate scum are less effected by these things then dogma would have us believe.
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Posted: Jun 17th 2010 12:18PM (Unverified) said

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Even without space combat, SWTOR will murder STO. They better hurry up and milk all the money they can now because once these game come out the only people going to be left are all the lifetime subs.

Posted: Jun 17th 2010 12:32PM TheJackman said

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Do not worry about they they milking it already for all they can... soon they will add bug fixes and patch's to the store! So you want us to fix the bugs only 4000 points in the store and your game got a few bugs less!
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Posted: Jun 17th 2010 4:09PM CCon99 said

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Sheesh, I read that "bug fixes on the C-Store" and didn't even laugh, because it wouldn't surprise me one bit if they tried to do it.

I could totally see them telling their players: "These bug fixes cost man hours to fix so we need to charge for them, plus we never exactly said bug fixes were exclusive to your monthly subscription did we? But we appreciate your support!"
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Posted: Jun 17th 2010 5:18PM Lctwo said

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I agree with Excelsior. SWTOR could easily retain a subscriber base of several million over a period of several years, whereas Cryptic is struggling to keep STO's numbers above 100,000.
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Posted: Jun 17th 2010 12:24PM Minofan said

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I don't think anyone devoted to ST:O can be swayed by trivialities like deep gameplay or business models that don't ask for payment up-front, monthly, for expansions and on individual content.

I kid, I kid!

Kinda...

I doubt any of those sci-fi games listed will materialize with both avatar & ground gameplay, if I'm correct as interpreting EVEs avatar content to be purely social rather than focused on actual play?

Posted: Jun 17th 2010 1:15PM (Unverified) said

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The dev's have said the avatars will start out with mostly social and other misc. options such as those but they will expand use and gameplay once they see where they fit into EVE and how that will efect the other areas of the game.
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Posted: Jun 17th 2010 12:37PM Ayenn said

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I don't think any of those games are a threat to STO in any way. It is not because those games are inferior, it is because each of them targets a different audience.

We have yet to know the genera of any of those games. We know their theme, sci-fi and one fantasy (SW:TOR), but we do not know what type of MMORPG they are. Are they a UO type, a EQ type, a hybrid of the two, or something new? Considering they all seem to be EQ types and STO is a EQ/UO hybrid I doubt even the genres of the others will have an effect on STO's viability.

Posted: Jun 17th 2010 12:41PM (Unverified) said

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"...First of all, many fans of STO won't be interested in a Star Wars game, for obvious reasons... "

I agree with the overall point, that STO will live-or-die by the hands of Cryptic.

I disagree with your assumption above. I, and probably many Star Trek "gamer" fans, are also fans of Star Wars (and other SciFi genera) and not locked into just one SciFi franchise. I know many Star Trek fans that have no desire to play STO - because they aren't gamers.

I plan to check out Black Prophecy when it ships.

I still play EVE

I plan to check out SW:TOR

I may purchase Starcraft II when it ships. I recently round I'm terribly rusty at RTS' games right now.

Posted: Jun 17th 2010 12:42PM (Unverified) said

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"And starship combat is STO's true specialty, so a sci-fi MMO without space combat won't blow STO out of the sky."

This is where you lost me. Up to that point. You were saying competitors would not succeed as a threat given their space combat specialty. Bring in SW:TOR, and you change your tune. Nice song and dance.

Is the ground combat a weak enough link to loose people to other games with space combat? I personally think the other games, as a group, are a real threat to STO's success. Almost as much a threat as Atari's money pit condition(the real reason Cryptic appears greedy). I don't think it will be killed off, just relegated to limp along like AO and SWG.

Posted: Jun 17th 2010 1:05PM (Unverified) said

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The most promising of those in my mind is Warhammer 40k.
Going down the list, Battlestar Galactica is too narrow of an IP to be turned into an MMO. If they pull it off, I'll be impressed. Still won't play it though.
Eve on the other hand is far too expansive, and I'd rather play Homeworld 3.
Jumpgate is being made to compete almost exclusively with EVE.
The Star Wars MMO is going to be a retelling of several dozen novels, and sounds hokey to me.
Star Trek online will be up for about another 2 years unless they pull something very major off and make the game fun, and also completely revamp their chat system because its terrible.

all my opinion though.

Posted: Jun 17th 2010 1:10PM (Unverified) said

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I came here to defend what I expected to be a dismissive reference to EvE, but found a well-reasoned and logical discussion all around.

I do believe, however that few players will drop a sub-based game for a/any FTP game. The "you get what you pay for" mantra is too common. Those games would have to be A LOT better for someone to switch.

And re: EvE's Incarna-- Anyone considering that for any reason is crazy...4 years in production and the only thing to show is a 60-sec cutscene. However, you SHOULD have considered the Dust514 game that is supposed to be an extension of EvE for the console thumbmasters.

Posted: Jun 17th 2010 1:22PM Super Nerd said

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The only threat I see in the future is SW: TOR, and I see it as a big one. Because in all honestly, I'll stop playing STO the second it's available.

Posted: Jun 17th 2010 1:25PM (Unverified) said

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Predictions: STO will go F2P just before SWTOR goes live. They won't be able to sustain the game off lifetime subscriber microtransactions alone. The game's fate will be decided by how Cryptic implements F2P with all the lifetime subscriptions in the mix. However, if history is an indication, it'll be the worst implementation imaginable (from a consumer perspective).

CCP will release Dust 514 in the interim and will change the face of MMO gaming forever. PI and Dust 514 is just the beginning, I think, if one considers all the possibilities for factional warfare. Incarna will bring the two groups together (EVE and Dust 514). CCP is on top of their game and, I think they're going to dominate in the future.

SWTOR will go live. People will play. People will quit. Really, too many unknowns to divine any meaning other than to say Bioware will release a highly polished game.

The future will see players deciding between SWTOR and EVE/Dust 514, splitting the market between those who prefer a story driven MMO and those who prefer to create their own stories.

The rest...insignificant as far as the sci-fi genre is concerned.

Posted: Jun 17th 2010 2:20PM (Unverified) said

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@Temujin: you should preface anything regarding CCP with "should."

EvE+Dust514 'should' change MMO gaming.

CCP 'should' dominate the future.

They have fallen on their faces with previous implementations--FW is a prime example of a mechanic that 'should' have been great, but was apparently abandon before it was ready. The EvE-Dust link could be equally fail. But it SHOULD be a game-changer. I have my fingers crossed.

And Incarna is still just a dream. Scheduled release is the day after Duke Nukem Forever, I believe.
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Posted: Jun 17th 2010 5:36PM Lionhearted said

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I think it's a little silly to assume that CCP can compete with Bioware. Bioware is on Blizzard's level for polish, and is armed with not only a giant IP, but a giant IP on which they've already built a wildly successful foundation in the KOTOR series. There's no way they don't get millions of subscribers, year one, just from curious fans of the KOTOR/Bioware franchises. If it's half as good as we think it should be, and as a game with $100s of millions in investments should be, then it's going to rock and be the only game on the market that comes close to rivaling WoW in subs and revenue (if not profits for a few years to recoup that giant investment).

After many years of being around, EvE still doesn't even have one million subscribers. So to say it or its parent company will "dominate" with the likes of Bioware is just fanboy fantasies, at best. It may "dominate" a very small niche (spacefaring sandbox PvPs) of the MMO Sub niche of the PC (Niche in itself) market... but that's it.
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Posted: Jun 17th 2010 7:20PM (Unverified) said

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Bioware has had great success in closed environment games. Other games that have had such success have entered the MMO world and fallen flat on their faces. Bioware will likely follow Turbine's track...pump cash into it for a year or two, then go free to play as subs fade away. They simply don't have the experience in the MMO model to make it a success, and are currently bleeding talent in that department.

I have no doubt that Bioware can create a pretty game (I liked ME2) , but a good IP can only take you so far (see LoTRO).

The track record of existing IPs being made into successful MMO franchises is pretty dismal.

It's pretty obvious that the SW:ToR is the most likely competitor to STO, but given Bioware's track record, EvE players will likely show it the same amount of attention they showed STO...trial and out.

EvE's fanbase is small (just over 300k I believe) but they are probably some of the most dedicated and reliable fans of any game...mostly due to the negative effects of leaving the game.

I wish the folks at Bioware luck--competition in this market can only help-- but I'm pessimistic about their potential for success.

Also...I'm not sure you understand what exactly Dust514 is (and is not). It is not marketed to EvE players. It is intended to garner an entirely new group of players and add them to the EvE universe. Linking a PC MMO to a console MMOFPS has not been done successfully yet. THAT is what is meant about CCP/Dust being a game-changer.

10 million subscribers? Not in a million years. 300-500k new players...probably. But the big question is whether the knucklehead thumbmashers will get along with the egghead spreadsheet guys. If CCP can make it work (50-50 chance) I expect more of the same from other games.
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