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Reader Comments (8)

Posted: Jun 2nd 2010 3:31PM J Brad Hicks said

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40,000? *whistles* I missed that article. No wonder they're flogging selling stuff to their existing customers so hard. Did the article give an upper limit to that estimate as well as a lower bound? Now, before people scream "dooom!" let me point out that however low it is, there are enough people on the two "real" servers (Freedom and Virtue) that as long as you're on there (or move your characters to there) it's plenty easy to find people to play with, and that's really all you need in an MMO, isn't it? But, man. 40,000 subscribers would be down almost 80% from peak. Remind me again why SWG is considered a legendary failure and CoH isn't?

On the hero side, your average post level 10 pickup group is better off doing task forces than they are newspaper missions. The end-of-story XP bonus is substantial, and the merit reward will eliminate all worries about having enough influence to buy your enhancements. The case is harder to make on the villain side, where the shorter strike forces won't level you up as fast, give lesser rewards, and have level gaps where you'd have to go find something else to do anyway. So on the villain side, I'd argue that you're better off mixing strike forces and /newspaper missions.

And yeah, absolutely: I don't think it makes any sense to mess with the invention system prior to level 27, the earliest level at which you get level 30 recipes as loot and the earliest level at which you can use them. Any enhancements you slot that are below level 30 are going to have to be replaced eventually anyway, to get real final bonuses. You really are better off with old-fashioned vended enhancements until then.

Posted: Jun 2nd 2010 4:05PM (Unverified) said

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Potential that's why. It's the same thing with draft picks. A #1 draft pick that is a bust is much more memorable than a #5 pick that becomes a bust or a #15 pick. To complete the clunky analogy, let's put Star Wars Galaxies and City of Heroes in the MMO draft pool. Star Wars Galaxies, with it's name recognition and cache is a 1st round #1 pick, also being developed by SOE that had a successful game in Everquest already under its belt helps. City of Heroes is a late first rounder maybe early second rounder since it was an original IP from a small relatively unknown developer (at the time). City of Heroes could have failed in its first year and no one would care or barely remember it, but Star Wars Galaxies is center stage all the time. Every success is noticed but every failure or setback is that much more glaring owing to its star factor.

In retrospect, it's hard not to acknowledge that SWG failed to live up to its potential and that CoH exceeded its own. Particularly owing to the fact that SWG scrapped the game mechanics and did a complete overhaul doesn't help as that was clearly the towel being thrown in. Also it's becoming increasingly obvious that CoH will indeed outlast SWG. It is a year younger than SWG about but I think it'll last more than a year past when SWG is finally taken behind the shed and put out of its misery.
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Posted: Jun 2nd 2010 3:51PM Sente said

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SInce the revenue per quarter is roughly half of what NCSoft reported back in the days when they still reported subscriber numbers, a guess could be closer to 60000 - the last subscriber count I saw was in around 120000 I believe.

But in the past months I have seen a fair amount of new players, more than compared to before that.

Personally I do not care so much about the leveling speed, the important thing is that the gameplay is fun. But in a good team you can get both.

I prefer to play real story arcs and follow stories rather than speed through newspaper missions, or do the same task/strike forces over and over again.
Variation is nice and you do have a few different options and paths, which essentially increase as you go up in levels.

As for the APP/PPP question - as far as I understood from what has been said here, if you are playing a villain and get into the high levels to pick PPP and then switch to become a hero, you still keep your PPP powers. But if you then respec at some point you lose access to PPPs and have to choose from APPs instead. And going from hero to villain it is the other way around.

I guess you could potentially then have one build with PPPs and one with APPs, since you have two separate builds.

Posted: Jun 2nd 2010 3:52PM Enaris said

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IIRC, that 40,000 number was an absurd lower bound. I think it was based on the assumption that only 1/3 of all revenues for the quarter were sub fees.

Now, CoH is well down... around 50% of it's high in terms of revenue. Why is that? Hard to say. I've seen theories that range from "People waiting for GR" to "the impact of CO/STO" to "Dollar/Won exchange rate changes making quarter to quarter comparisons tricky" to DOOOOM

Overall, I'd say it's a combo of a game that is 6 years old, some people taking a pre-GR break, and impact from other games and the economy. The whole thing now boils down to GR. What does NCSoft expect as the new, continuing sub figures? Will the game hit those figures? How important is CoH to NCSoft in terms of keeping a strong US Presence? We can speculate on those questions all year long, but the answers are truly only found in the minds of the corporate officials. In the end, at this moment, NCSoft is still fully supporting the game. While the last year has been very content light (the issues have had lots of stuff, just not alot of content), we'll hopefully see that fixed with GR and what is to come.

Posted: Jun 2nd 2010 4:08PM (Unverified) said

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I think that we know that APPs and PPPs will not be directly passed from tanker to brute, etc. At one point during the closed beta for i17 a set for the stalkers was accidentally available. I don't have details, but it wasn't an exact copy.

Also, there is a forum thread on the topic of sub numbers in general discussion. I think the 40k estimate was considered to be a very ungenerous estimation. The fact is, it would be extremely difficult to calculate even if we only had money from subs. But the fact is it is money from subs, booster packs (if there was one included for that quarter), and game sales.

Just a quick counter point. On the forums as I post this there are currently almost 6000 currently active users (which, as far as i can tell, means presently or just recently signed on, not sure of the parameters) on the CoH forums. Around 1750 are registered users (signed into their account, trial accounts included only have forum access limited to technical and player question forums i believe). Just taking the accounts currently signed in, that would represent about 4.5% of the playerbase on the forums at a given moment (if 40k is the number). This isn't even including the 4k+ users who may lack an account or not be signed in. To me, it seems extremely unlikely that such a high percentage of the playerbase is on the forums at once. Alternatively, I would suggest that the playerbase is larger, but other explanations could come into play.

This is not to suggest this is a superior way of understanding the size of the CoH playerbase, but a complementary one.

Posted: Jun 2nd 2010 8:13PM Zaozo said

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Sure, people can argue that 40,000 is a low number. But CoX has been around for 6 years, and as such has a pretty steady playerbase. It doesn't lose subscribers very often and probably doesn't gain them very often. Which means there is very little hardware costs, very little maintenance. Not to mention you have a team of developers that know the development tools like the back of their hands so they are all very efficient at developing new content for CoX (in other words, less developers needed, less costs).

So, taking all of that into consideration. You can assume that CoX costs far less to maintain than most other MMO games. So it's somewhat of a cash cow for NCSoft and I don't think they will be killing it off anytime soon.

However, just because CoX is a cash cow doesn't mean it won't be slaughtered sooner or later. (I know that when I played CoX the devs started talking about the limitations of the CoX game engine and that was issue 13 (ya know when they said "Screw you PvPers, we don't like you!") Bitterness aside... this starts stirring the idea of a squeal, because all those great ideas they couldn't put in CoH due to limitations, all the great things that worked out really well in CoX can be planned and implemented right from the beginning of development.

Personally, I see GR as the last (major) hurrah for CoX before Paragon Studios starts shifting resources into beginning development of CoH2. (But that's just what I think)

Posted: Jun 2nd 2010 10:36PM UnSub said

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Based on the Q1 2010 revenue figures plus some historical adjusting, I believe CoH/V currently sits at between 70k - 80k active subs.

However, the more concerning issue is that these revenue figures (and ergo: subs) have been declining for a long time now. The Going Rogue expansion is a huge opportunity to reverse that trend, but I'm not sure it will based on the current sliding release date (July! No, make that Summer! Maybe September!) and the lack of promotion it is getting.

Posted: Jun 3rd 2010 1:03AM Superfan said

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Ok here's a question from a different area. Why is the game so repetitive and lacking imagination?! Same maps over and over. You try and promote it as content but it's not - it's the same map, minions, layout. The only difference is the text/write up/objective. Sorry but that is not new content. It's called recycling. It might be good when you recycle waste products but not in an MMO. I know it's hard and it takes work but the funny thing is...that's where you're at...WORK.

Please don't use the cop out of 'the other games are doing it' excuse. You've had 6 years and there isn't too much in the way of epic in this game. Maybe the ITF which is a lot of fun. Most other TFs/SFs are collections of old minions/maps strung together.

I am tired of the City or Repetition!

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