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Reader Comments (73)

Posted: May 25th 2010 7:11PM (Unverified) said

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I was a "win-back" when WotLK launched, but only for like 6-8 weeks or so. I think the guy is kidding himself if he thinks WoW is going to see any *long-term* growth after Cataclysm.

I don't have anything against WoW -- in fact, I had a lot of fun in it a few years ago -- but I've seen all it has to offer at this point.

I don't think WoW is going anywhere... I think it will still be around in 10 years! But it's peaked. Now begins the slow, steady decline.

Posted: May 25th 2010 7:19PM TheJackman said

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*long-term* growth after Cataclysm. Is a pretty sure thing. Blizzard is going back to the 1-60 content that was pretty much unchanged from release day. And they will change the zones and add more quests and make the quest hubs more big with there own fly point. It will be a huge improvement for new players that maybe did not like the way they had to walk a lot of times every 5 quests with crappy rewards and no real guide where to go.

I hope they doing the same they did in the Dead knight zone and let this young noobs have some real story xp!
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Posted: May 26th 2010 3:53PM (Unverified) said

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To Jack,

While they are adding new zones and updating others, the fundamentals of the game aren't really changing. Rated BGs are the only new addition to the "fundamentals" of the game.

I think the game certainly has the potential go higher but for personally, if they treat Cataclysm's PvE like they have for WotLK I certainly won't be resubscribing.
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Posted: May 25th 2010 7:15PM RogueJedi86 said

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WoW won't die with a bang, but with a whimper. Blizzard won't make any press releases on them hitting a new low on players, so all we'll see is a lot less press releases on new subscriber highs(like we've had for the past year and a half since WoW hit 11.5 million players last January). It'll die slowly just like EverQuest has been, just slowly sliding out of the pop culture pools until people suddenly go "remember WoW?".

Posted: May 25th 2010 7:37PM Wild Colors said

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Probably not a whimper.....probably a big party to congratulate the designers and creators for generating around $150 million a month in subscriptions alone for years on end...

Just guessing...
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Posted: May 25th 2010 7:17PM Rich said

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He can positive, but alot of people have left and won't be coming back with Cataclysm. Sure, quite a few people will come back but it won't be a majority of those that have left.

WoW has been having numbers leveling off in NA and Europe for along time now. Most of the 11.5 million are in the Asian market.

WoW has hit its heyday and will slowly decline from here on out no matter they do, its just the nature of things. That being said, it will be still around for a long time and continue to put out quality stuff. I just think its hit its peak.

Posted: May 26th 2010 11:36AM Xtofer said

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I still quite enjoy the fact that everybody automatically becomes an expert on WoW's eventual demise, yet these same people have no facts to back themselves up. And what's worse, is WoW has maintained success. Yet (very few) people need to hate on the success to make themselves... feel better or something?
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Posted: May 26th 2010 9:27PM Not THAT Matt said

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The only players who won't come back are butt-hurt players who are upset that WoW hasn't been taylor-made to the crap THEY want.

Boo hoo.
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Posted: May 25th 2010 7:41PM (Unverified) said

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Sadly they will see growth in China but their American playerbase has never exceed what it was at the peak of version of 1.8.

And killing 25-man raiding and dumbing the game down even further in Cataclysm will not be growing their game in the long run as the Activision pawns now in control think.

I quit as soon as they announced the raid changed for Cata as did almost my entire guild as well as the #2 guild on my server (we were #1).

They've really screwed over every fan of the original WoW.

Posted: May 27th 2010 2:11AM (Unverified) said

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Xtofer and Not THAT Matt, this guy is a prime example of what you were talking about

they arent killing 25 mans in any sense of the word, they are giving them players a much more appropriate incentive to doing them. Instead of a higher itemlevel for drops, there will be a higher number of them *per raider* rumors have it that 25 mans will drop 3-4 times the loot that 10 mans will. rumors aside, blizzard has confirmed that 25 mans will indeed drop more loot per raider than 10 mans, so if you go the extra mile, you will still be rewarded

btw, I call bs on your whole #1 guild (as well as the #2 guild) calling it quits
1) #1 raiding guilds are generally (see: always) more concerned with achievements (like being the number 1 guild) more than outgearing everyone else (since by default, they do)
2) the whole guild? thats just retarded
3) even if it did happen (it didnt), quiting a game you are apparently enjoying now for something that wont be happening for another 6 months is pretty lulzy

basically what im saying is
lolumad

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Posted: May 29th 2010 5:59PM (Unverified) said

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Lol, what-e-e-e-e-e-ver. Almost all of the top two guilds quit at the announcement of cataclysm? Whatever. No offense, but WoW elitists don't spend that much time and effort making themselves leet and then just quit when new stuff gets announced. Maybe they quit cuz the finished everything, or maybe you all just whined about quitting but never actually did and you and a few of your RL buddies actually followed through, but they'll be back for Cata. Lol, the idea of large, long-term built guilds suddenly unsubbing on a whim...how stupid do you take people for. Go cry somewhere else.
Lol, such BS, lol. Omg, that was funny.
You people have been crying out about how WoW is dying for years, yet look, its still here and still going strong. It will get even stronger when Cataclysm comes and even more subs when China gets (if China gets) Wrath. Or Cata, even, not sure what the status on China Cataclysm is, so I won't pretend to know.
Not to mention Blizzard has other raging successes like Diablo and Starcraft. Even if I don't like them, I'm man enough to dmit that lots of other people do. Don't kid yourselves, thinking that you know how business work. You sit at home and play video games and eat Cheetos. They sit on piles of YOUR money and think of genius ways to get you to buy more. Their genius way? Making stuff that keeps people coming back. It's so brilliant...if only other MMOs would think of that!
Lol Go back to Aion and grind some more. Keep talking about how AoC will kill WoW and how EQ is the classic and only worthy game to ever hit the market. Keep on, and while you do that, the rest of us will be enjoying some nice raids with crisp graphics, that are low-end enough to work on anyone's computer, but still nice enough to really catch the eye, and our pretty, shiny loot that isn't just the same mesh over and over.
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Posted: Jun 4th 2010 6:33PM (Unverified) said

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@Daniel

Sorry, but ytou must have not read Zarhyms followup post on the loot numbers. He said specifically not to think 10 mans will drop as little as 1 per boss or as many as 6 for 25 mans. This was in MMO Champions blue posts about a month and a half ago. Now, if 10's will drop more than 1 and 25's less than 6, you can see about a 5:2 ratio in drops, which is the identical ratio of 25:10 raiding. It's so funny how people in 10's always say this won't kill 25's but trust me it will. Also, as for people leaving, Muqq the MT of Ensidia has announced several weeks ago when this news was made he was leaving the game, and several other members of that guild hve left to (in case you don't know it, Ensidia has for much of WoW's time out been the number 1 guild in the world). As for whole guilds leaving, yeah, that is happening a LOT. Blizz has made this game extremely pug friendly which will hurt them in the short and long run because they are driving off the hardcore player. As for the 11.5 million subscriber number, if you look at how Blizz counts subscriptions, many of those aren't even active subscriptions. Blizz lost their main Chinese supplier of WoW last fall and WoW wasn't even there for several months and many of the players didn't come back even when a new company was found to run the servers and diistribute it. Just look up total sales numbers for BC and WOTLK. No where near 11 million sold. Less than half that as a matter of fact. For WoW to grow, new people will have to buy Vanilla, then buy BC and Wrath and finally Cataclysm. Not going to happen. And with so many hardcore leaving, you will have fewer mods made, fewer boss strat sites and so forth. Pugs and casuals wont spend days on end learning a new boss so Blizz will have no choice but to make the game tank and spank making it essentially as casual as Guild Wars was/is. As for you saying quitting the game now for something that won't happen for 6 month is lulzy means you don't understand what's going on. The games over. Many have killed LK and aren't paying a subscription for 6 months for nothing. Ruby Sanctum will be a joke. Heroic mode was downed hours after it was released on the PTR and offers no reason to stay with the game. So people who are letting their subscriptions lapse now, like me, won't be back because of Blizz taking away any reward and challenge for doing the game.
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Posted: Jun 4th 2010 4:33AM (Unverified) said

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@ Lilkitten

"Sorry, but ytou must have not read Zarhyms followup post on the loot numbers. He said specifically not to think 10 mans will drop as little as 1 per boss or as many as 6 for 25 mans." citation needed, i dont remeber a blue when he talked about such solid numbers, only when he discussed the concept

there have been no definite answers on how the system will work other than 25 man will drop more loot PER PLAYER than 10 mans, hence the perk for going through the extra trouble to get the 25 man together, that isnt game breaking

"Now, if 10's will drop more than 1 and 25's less than 6, you can see about a 5:2 ratio in drops, which is the identical ratio of 25:10 raiding. It's so funny how people in 10's always say this won't kill 25's but trust me it will." again pulling numbers OUT YOUR ASS, but if the ratio was identical to 25:10 raiding there would be no extra loot in 25 man (per person) and therefore no incentive to do 25 mans, killing them

"Also, as for people leaving, Muqq the MT of Ensidia has announced several weeks ago when this news was made he was leaving the game"
I dont get it, did you think you were the only one in the world who was aware of the going ons within ensidia, or did you just assume no one would research your support?
http://www.ensidia.com/muqq/blog/4436/

Mugg explaining why he is ACTUALLY leaving. he says nothing about the change to 25 mans

he even said quite the opposite:
'Having 4 versions of the same instance, same bosses and same scenery also gets quite repetitive.'
'So, what do I want?... worthwhile content... it can be anything from 5 man up to 25 man

(in all honesty his farewell post is textbook rage over not getting the world first h25 man kill)

sorry you couldn't be more wrong, nice try though

"and several other members of that guild hve left to" [citation needed] sure you arent just trying to pad the, very little (see: none), support you have?

"As for whole guilds leaving, yeah, that is happening a LOT." again no

show me ONE forum topic about it and i will show you a bad guild looking for attention

"if you look at how Blizz counts subscriptions, many of those aren't even active subscriptions" also not true, one of the biggest increases in subscriptions blizz is banking on with the release of cataclysm is customers returning after being bored with the same old game (see: wrath)

seriously, do you assume these things are correct without checking them because just because they support your point of view or what? because i dont see where you would find such a hodgepodge of misinformation

"For WoW to grow, new people will have to buy Vanilla, then buy BC and Wrath and finally Cataclysm. Not going to happen"

no, its not going to happen, because you can already get the whole game, start to f*cking finish, for free, from THEIR DAMN SITE

"And with so many hardcore leaving, you will have fewer mods made, fewer boss strat sites and so forth" seriously; two things and im done with your wall:
1) wtb corroborating evidence for any of your numbers/logic
2) bookmark this page, in a year when everything you said has come true I want you to come back here and RUB MY NOSE IN IT
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Posted: Jun 4th 2010 7:08PM (Unverified) said

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@ Daniel

As I said, this was on MMO Champions blue post tracker quite a while back, 2 or 3 days after the announcment was made. http://blue.mmo-champion.com/t/24401856405/cataclysm-raid-progression-refinements/

Here is Zarhym's comment,
"When we say “25 should drop more loot,” we’re just sharing a philosophy. You shouldn’t assume that this means that 10-player modes will drop 1 item or that 25-player modes will drop 6 items, or whatever. We haven’t finalized how much loot will drop, but our general goal is that 25s should drop more to help make up for some of the logistical cost."

That phrasing interestingly leaves out more loot "per player". His own numbers suggest while it will drop more loot in 25, the loot per player will be the same. Drop more than 1 in 10, you can see 2. Drop less than 6 in 25, you can see 5. Ratio of raiding between 25 and 10 is 25:10, or 2.5:1 or said another way, 5:2 which seems to be the loot ratio drop Zarhym is talking about. Even if it dropped more loot per player, gearing would still be faster in 10's. Most raids will not take more than 1 per class. In 25's, many players will have to compete. So even if you had 2 drops per boss in 10's and say 8 in 25's, a mage would have no competition for his loot drop in a 10 but would have to roll against 2 or 3 others in a 25.

Also, it's interesting to point out when Wrath came out and there were discussions on loot differences between 10 and 25, Ghostcrawler himself pointed out that if gear was identical, it would kill 25 person raiding because the logistics of just getting a 25 raid together is more diffucult.http://forums.worldofwarcraft.com/thread.html?sid=1&topicId=14637425299&pageNo=3

For those who don't wish to look it up,
"We have positioned our 25-player content as more difficult and therefore capable of generating better rewards. Managing a group of that size requires a little more effort and we figured if the rewards were the same, we'd steer pretty much everyone towards 10-player raiding. At this point we don't want to do that."

Read, "MANAGING" a group the size of a 25. Even if you could make the encounters relatively the same in diffuculty between the 2 raids, more work goes in from a management aspect for a 25 and that's what GC discusses. His post was on April 7, 2009 so this thinking that equal rewards won't kill 25's, well, even Blizz doesn't agree with that.

As for Muqq, sorry, but he quit the game AFTER the announced changes in raiding, there have been articles on wow.com, mmo champs and the like. Sorry I don't bookmark every page I go to and I dount you do as well. As for your copy and paste of the 4 instances remark, this has nothing to do with the gear changes. The 4 versions of the same instance is pretty much hated by everyone.

When you say no to whole guilds leaving, are you blind? I play on BDF, one of the guilds on the server, Forgotten Heroes got world first of Heroic Anub 25. The server used to host upwards of 20+ end game guilds. Now, maybe 5 guilds on the server still raid, if that many. As for showing you forum posts, sorry, guilds don't go and make "Offically stopped raiding" threads. You can armory my character on BDF, name is the same. I have server first for Naxx and OS. The rest of my guild has it for Maly as well. I don't because I was babysitting that night, but we are hardly a bad guild. We killed LK, that was the purpose of this xpac, so what is the point of doing ICC for nearly 6 more months?

As for your comment about playing the game for free, um, are you just ignorant? Blizz not only does not allow free play, they do NOT give away the game for free. You can get a free trial, but that has a level and time limit on it. My original statement stands, for WoW to grow, they HAVE to sell the original game and all 3 xpacs to new people. Even if someone did that, the moment they hit Outlands and saw it deserted, a new player isn't going to stick around. And Blizz isn't reworking outlands.
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Posted: Jun 6th 2010 12:55AM (Unverified) said

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@ Lilkitten

"That phrasing interestingly leaves out more loot 'per player'." because
a) its very heavily implied and it goes without saying
b) it was already said in the original post

Nethaera said:
"We of course recognize the logistical realities of organizing larger groups of people, so while the loot quality will not change, 25-player versions will drop a higher quantity of loot PER PLAYER (items, but also badges, and even gold), making it a more efficient route if you're able to gather the people."

seriously check your damn sources before you form an opinion on them

"His own numbers suggest while it will drop more loot in 25, the loot per player will be the same."

no they don't, the only numbers he presents (1:6) outright states the complete opposite, what he was saying which you hopelessly misconstrued is that alpha is alpha, there are no solid numbers

"5:2 which seems to be the loot ratio drop Zarhym is talking about" LOLWUT!? seriously quote what he said that lead you to that conclusion, if you can't (you cant) kindly stop pulling numbers from your a$s

"Even if it dropped more loot per player, gearing would still be faster in 10's." wait why? if you have the 25 people for the 25 man, it will be a much more efficient way to gear up

more loot per player, more chances to get what you need, how are you missing that?

"Most raids will not take more than 1 per class."
I dont know who you are raiding with, but since there are only 10 classes, you are much more likely to be in a raid with more than 1 of a class than 1 of each class

the point is, its not even common place, much less "most raids"

"In 25's, many players will have to compete. So even if you had 2 drops per boss in 10's and say 8 in 25's, a mage would have no competition for his loot drop in a 10 but would have to roll against 2 or 3 others in a 25." more loot per player is still more loot per player, while he may have to compete with a few others (much more likely just 1 other than 2 or 3 lol) the item still is 4 times more likely to drop

he is still better off in the 25 man


"Read, "MANAGING" a group the size of a 25. Even if you could make the encounters relatively the same in diffuculty between the 2 raids, more work goes in from a management aspect for a 25 and that's what GC discusses. His post was on April 7, 2009 so this thinking that equal rewards won't kill 25's, well, even Blizz doesn't agree with that."

ok? blizz doesnt want the rewards from 25 mans which require that philosophy hasnt changed at all
a quantity reward is still just as much a reward as quality

25 mans will still be rewarded accordingly that isn't changing, if you paid close attention to the posts you keep sighting you'd notice that

"As for Muqq, sorry, but he quit the game AFTER the announced changes in raiding, there have been articles on wow.com, mmo champs and the like. Sorry I don't bookmark every page I go to and I dount you do as well" youre able to did up year old blues though?

sorry you can't support your erroneous claims, it happens

"As for your copy and paste of the 4 instances remark, this has nothing to do with the gear changes. The 4 versions of the same instance is pretty much hated by everyone"
actually it has everything to do with it, if anything he doesnt like the split raid system, and could care less if the rewards were slightly better than an easier version of it, its irrelevant anyway, as you were wrong about why muqq left

"As for showing you forum posts, sorry, guilds don't go and make "Offically stopped raiding" threads." yes they do, all the time
if the guild doesnt themselves, a third party always posts a thread about why guild x isnt around anymore

extremely commonplace realm drama is extremely commonplace

"As for your comment about playing the game for free, um, are you just ignorant? Blizz not only does not allow free play, they do NOT give away the game for free. You can get a free trial, but that has a level and time limit on it." good thing we werent talking about monthly fees, if you have an account, you can download the whole game and every expansion online for free

"My original statement stands, for WoW to grow, they HAVE to sell the original game and all 3 xpacs to new people. " have you ever played games with expansions before? its pretty common place that once there are to many, they start to bundle them together (kinda like they have online already)

"Even if someone did that, the moment they hit Outlands and saw it deserted, a new player isn't going to stick around." you mean like right now?

new players are leveling through the deserted outlands as we speak, why would that change in cata, furthermore how many tangents do you need to go off on before you grasp how wrong you are?

"And Blizz isn't reworking outlands." who are you to say they wont?
we have at least 4 more expansions ahead of us, blizz has plenty of time to do whatever the f*ck they want with outland
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Posted: May 25th 2010 7:54PM (Unverified) said

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Why do people still quote the 11.5 mil mark? You shouldn't use present tense.

No way they have that number of active subscribers today - their North American numbers have certainly dipped...especially in the past 2-4 months. They may come back - but not sure if cata is enough. I think the bleeding might be higher than most imagine. 1/2 of my guild quit - and this story is echoed throughout many other guilds/servers.

Most "semi-casuals" don't care enough about heroic modes, especially because it's on the same raidid. So they down Arthas in either 10 or 25, then get bored of the treadmill (running ICC for 6 months is kind of insane).

Posted: May 25th 2010 8:24PM Its Utakata stupid said

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You might want to give us some actual numbers instead of speculating. I've seen and heard players leave the game since Vanilla, doesn't mean player population had shrunk.
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Posted: May 25th 2010 8:57PM (Unverified) said

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No one has actual numbers.

The "I've seen this before" argument is flawed - just because they came back in the past, doesn't mean they'll come back again.

WoW faces "the Innovators Dilemma".

The absence of any news from Blizzard for so long regarding subscriber numbers is somewhat telling as well.
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Posted: May 26th 2010 12:22PM Sukiyaki said

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In other words they just aim to inflate their numbers again with a few 100,000 new or even just transitory Chinese player out of their multi-ten-million MMORPG market.
We can be shure they will release WotLK in China arround the same time they release Cataclysm.

Top it with some more player fooled into resubscribing by the hype and sham for Cataclysm just as they did with Wrath.

A more aggressive facebook and TV advertisement campaign alongside
and a new record is inbound. Then we wont hear anything from them again until the next winterseason peak.
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Posted: May 26th 2010 2:36PM (Unverified) said

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Blizzard published its revenus on each quarter.

And each quarter in the past 2 years they made the same HUGE round figure of ABOVE 300.000.000 US dollars on their MMO.

That's more than 1.2 BILLION dollars per year.

There is your proof of the 6 million western subs (US+EU+Russia+SA+Korean...) and 5.5 million China subs. (which only makes up 9% of the money because of "cheaper" subs over there).

You can check all the latest financial info on the website of Activision Blizzard btw as the group is officially recorded on NAsdaq.

So here you go: the finances back up the subs (equivalent of 8 million subs tilmes 13 dollars per month (minus small profit of distribution). Since China is only 9% from that total, the subs are SPOT on when calculating those 11.500.000 worldwide subscriptions.

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