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Reader Comments (9)

Posted: Mar 3rd 2010 5:13PM J Brad Hicks said

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Winged monkeys will fly out of my backside before City of Heroes 2 comes out, and I'll tell you why: Lineage II. Lineage II was an economic disaster for NCsoft, doubling their support costs without earning them one dollar of revenue. And that's exactly what City of Heroes 2 would do. Unless they did what they didn't have the guts to do with Lineage, unless they did what Reakktor Media did with Neocron, and that's shut down City of Heroes 1 and force everybody to move to City of Heroes 2. But if they were going to do that, why would they change the name? (Hint: Neocron 2 wasn't exactly a huge win for Reakktor Media, either.)

Posted: Mar 3rd 2010 7:01PM Skellybob said

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If Guild Wars II is anything to go by, NCSoft haven't been turned off the idea of sequels.
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Posted: Mar 3rd 2010 7:53PM Cinnamoon said

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Hard to say whether that's really true. EQ2 didn't kill EQ1; in fact the original game is still getting expansions. On the other hand, AC2 flopped badly, and EA was so terrified of a UO sequel that they canceled *two* of them. NCSoft doesn't seem frightened of Guild Wars 2 either. It seems like it varies from game to game and community to community -- Lineage 1 and 2 aren't really like most other MMOs, so I'd not be too quick to extrapolate based on them.
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Posted: Mar 3rd 2010 8:00PM (Unverified) said

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CoH seems to have lost a good chunk of its subscribers. I base this on my experience of empty servers and light loads on Freedom and Virtue. Also the huge (and expanded) window NCsoft is giving for free server transfers seems to indicate a desire to consolidate servers. So I wonder, even with its bugginess, if Champions Online didn't steal away CoH subscribers. Or maybe they just gave up and went back to WoW after the Architect Entertainment fiasco.

Posted: Mar 3rd 2010 10:07PM Sam not Spam said

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Well, "lost" is a strong word with some equally strong connotations. It definitely lost players to CO, but I think the updates being so system orientated versus content has a lot of people taking breaks, too. We'll have to see when the typical reasons for folks to come back (content updates) hit. Could be a lot of folks waiting for Going Rogue as well.

Hell, I've taken a few months worth of breaks in the past year or two.

You do have a point in that there could be folks who left COH for CO but then left CO and likely won't go back to either. Those are folks I'd certainly call "lost". I suspect there are more folks folks "on hold" than them, though.
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Posted: Mar 3rd 2010 10:34PM J Brad Hicks said

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It's honestly tell if they're still losing subscribers, at least net negative. Obviously there's some turnover, but are more people quitting than joining? Hard to tell, and not just because NCsoft started reporting net revenue for CoH instead of subscriber numbers. You see, before they started handing out free character transfers, they SIGNIFICANTLY increased the number of people who can play on one server without crashing it, by at least ten-fold, to the point where it doesn't even perceptibly lag during peak hours during reactivation weekends, when I know the servers are being slammed. So telling me that servers other than Freedom and Virtue are emptier than they were before doesn't tell me how many of those people left for good, versus how many of them moved their characters to the big power-leveling server and the big RP server. I will say that at this point, the few people who don't think to create their characters on Freedom or Virtue are almost all taking advantage of those free server moves themselves. They'd shut down the other US servers if it weren't for two facts: some people prefer a nearly empty server for themselves and their close friends, and they have no practical way in CoH to resolve name collisions.

My gut instinct is that it dropped again slightly a couple of months ago and has stabilized since, maybe climbed a little bit. But I don't have any more evidence to back this up than you do. I do know that the big two servers are hopping, day and night, and that's enough for me as long as NCsoft is making enough money that they're willing to keep investing in the game.
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Posted: Mar 4th 2010 10:51AM (Unverified) said

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For the record, the servers have light loads because the hardware went through an upgrade about a year ago, expanding the capacity of the servers.

I don't remember what was said, but the login numbers for one of their double-XP weekends last year exceeded their consecutive login record since launch.

I don't think this game is dying as much as you think it is. It is funny, though. If those server lights were in the yellow/red, it would make people think the game is doing better. Who would have thought a technical indicator would carry so much PR weight.
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Posted: Mar 4th 2010 3:57AM Superfan said

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I plan on heading back to CoX if GR brings what I suspect it will. Actually, I am likely to head back for i17 but we'll see. These DEVS have a bad habit of going a looooong time between updates and it drives people away (IMO). It drove me away.

Anyway, until I return, please view this important announcement for the Terminotaur!

http://en.tackfilm.se/?id=1267684981593RA32

Posted: Mar 4th 2010 11:49AM UnSub said

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CoH/V's player numbers are down, as is the quarterly revenue. The Q4 2009 NCsoft financials indicated that there was a large decline in revenue.

CoH/V's sub numbers peaked with CoV's launch and there has been a declining trend in its revenue / sub numbers since that point. There are charts in my blog on this issue if you really want to look at the figures (http://unsubject.wordpress.com/2010/02/14/how-many-players-does-cohv-have-anyway/).

Q3 2009 saw the launch of Champions Online, Aion and Fallen Earth. There also appears to have been a decline in revenue during this period as well, suggesting that a chunk of players did move over to try at least one of those MMOs. Since there wasn't a large bounce back / stabilisation in Q4 2009, it appears that number of these players didn't turn around an immediately come back. That might change come the Q1 2010 figures, but we'll see.

I think CoH/V has a declining player base but with a stable core who will be there until the servers shut down. Also, Paragon Studios is currently working on its next MMO. Might be CoH 2, with the plan to launch it post-DCUO.

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