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Reader Comments (66)

Posted: May 7th 2009 4:45PM (Unverified) said

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I think these numbers are pretty dodgy, too! I don't play World of Warcraft, so how could it get the top spot? It's unthinkable that other people could have different preferences and pastimes than me! }:-)
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Posted: May 7th 2009 7:21PM (Unverified) said

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*high fives Jacek*
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Posted: May 7th 2009 4:42PM (Unverified) said

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Tatero, posture all you want about it, but just over 3% of 180K homes = just shy of 6K homes playing. Whoop de doo. Suggesting that SL pwns WoW with 6k vs almost 100k homes playing is poor work and focusing in on the stat that appears to best support the game you enjoy.

If you wanted to do something interesting with this headline, you would have spent 20 minutes researching why SL players spend over an hour more in-game on the average each week. You could have written something really nice about how SL draws people in and keeps them once they find it; about the community of people in SL that help cement the notion that you are a part of something.

Instead you tried to fist-pump and shout "We're #1!!!!!" which was amateurish in terms of 'reporting' here, and also anything but the truth. SL is a niche product with small relevance against the larger market.

BTW, statistics that win: Your missing 'other' mmo's didn't make the cut because the average amount of time played was lower than those in the top 10. Simple math. They may have far more folks playing than SL (Runescape anyone?) but those folks don't stay connected for as long each week.

Which would, again, have been an interesting note in an article about the meaningful data in that chart and how SL bonds a smaller community much more tightly than the overwhelmingly larger number of games that have more subscribers but shorter play times.

Try harder next time?

Posted: May 7th 2009 4:50PM (Unverified) said

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I never suggested that it pwns WoW. WoW is the clear leader here!
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Posted: May 7th 2009 4:55PM (Unverified) said

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I like the way you pretend that the 6K measured homes that used SL must have been the *only* 6K homes in the country where SL is used, rather than being representative of a broader trend. You're very good at selectively misinterpreting statistics to rationalize the data to fit your preconceptions. :)
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Posted: May 7th 2009 4:57PM (Unverified) said

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Actually, I have to correct myself and take back those percentages. The TMP field is not the percentage of households that were playing any game, they are the percentage of minutes spent in any game from the top 100.

WoW: 46%
Second Life: 3%
Other MMO's: < 1.6%

Or, in English, for every 100 minutes these households played games, 46 of them were spent in WoW, just over 3 of them were spent in SL, and less than 1 minute and 36 seconds were spent in any other MMO (which is why they aren't on this list).

We don't even know how many homes played any one game. What we do know is that Second Life users spend more time in game (or platform to be nice) than any other games users, but they add up just over 3% of all game time played. This infers a very small population that really likes SL.

WoW coming in second with average minutes played, and first in TMP tells us that a much larger group of people play this game, and also stay in the game a good amount of time. This infers a wide population that really likes WoW.

Or, in a nutshell: SL is still a very small environment that has great sticky factor for the niche audience that enjoys it.
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Posted: May 7th 2009 5:39PM (Unverified) said

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I believe the headline is "pwns Warhammer Online" not World of Warcraft.

l33t speak and statistical bias aside, SL's slow-but-steady rise is indeed newsworthy.

I agree, an in-depth analysis would be informative and enjoyable, but that's not the point of this particular article, I think.
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Posted: May 7th 2009 6:13PM (Unverified) said

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rc5583, thanks for your 2nd interpretation of the data. That clarification makes a lot more sense. The stats aren't saying that 3% of homes out of 180,000 are playing SL, but rather that 3% of the time spent playing games by 180,000 households are spent in SL. So a small portion of heavy users (and SL users spend more time in 'game' than any others) would skew the results towards that game.
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Posted: May 7th 2009 4:43PM (Unverified) said

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Considering how SL's first-hour learning curve is generally considered more challenging than most games, AND the fact that SL is *not* a game but a platform (which is tough for a lot of people to wrap their heads around), I for one am pleasantly surprised to see such a high percentage of "average households" using SL.

WoW is of course the giant, but let's factor the in-world economy into things too. I doubt anyone is earning a living playing WoW. On the other hand, I know of several content creators in SL who are earning very healthy real-world incomes from the "game" that is SL.

Posted: May 7th 2009 4:48PM (Unverified) said

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"Top 10 PC Games"....... By calling 200,000 random homes and asking what game they play? Not so much.

Posted: May 7th 2009 4:51PM (Unverified) said

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Again - Nielsen tracked actual computer usage, rather than relying on asking. I think we've said that three times so far :)
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Posted: May 7th 2009 5:41PM (Unverified) said

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How do you think Nielsen tracks TV usage, John? Surveys are based on a sampling of overall users. 180,000 households is actually a pretty large sample!
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Posted: May 7th 2009 4:50PM (Unverified) said

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what i want to know is, HL2? which half-life 2? Are they counting episodes 1&2 as well? All the games that use a executable called "hl2.exe" (that's like 9 games)?
If it's a survey, some people could be grouping them together...

Depending on how they recorded the information, some of the stats are a little strange.

Posted: May 7th 2009 4:54PM (Unverified) said

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AH - Update, 11:50am: Writing in Comments, Nielsen's Brad Raczka says this data is not from consumer surveys where they estimate gameplay times, but actual play: "Just wanted to let you know that this data is from actual metered gameplay measurement... It is not survey data. We electronically meter the web and application activity from 180,000+ homes in the U.S." In an email exchange, he adds: "Keep in mind the Nielsen Online panel is not a panel of gamers, rather a panel of U.S. homes all over from which we track web and gaming activity."

There we go then - as far as I know, they would have no way to detect WHICH game using "hl2.exe" launched...which means that stat is actually

Team fortress 2
HL2
HL2 episode 1
HL2 episode 2
Portal
HL1 Source
...Counterstrike Source, possibly?

Posted: May 7th 2009 5:00PM mysecretid said

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The problem with statistics (as any honest statistician will tell you) is that they don't automatically scale well, and the context under which the numbers are acquired can make a significant difference in the results you get.

On scale:

There's the obvious example which is often abused in TV commercials. You survey 10 people in New York. Four of them think cats are evil beings from Dimension X. The rest think cats are regular animals.

The way certain lazy media and corporate interests run with statistics, you could see headlines like "40% of New Yorkers Surveyed Think Cats Are Demons!" or a catfood commericial claiming "Cat Treatz! Now With Brimstone! Because Almost _Half_ of Our Customer Base* Wanted It!".

(* tiny footnote fine print -- "half of customers surveyed")

Sure, 181,000+ homes surveyed is a lot more than 10 people -- but the same problem of scaling applies. Just because something is true at a lesser level does not automatically mean it's also true on wider scale.

Survey statistics are good for discovering tendencies, or trends worth keeping an eye on, but they are not naturally or automatically predictive, or indicative of anything.

The second problem also comes into play -- under what context are the statistics gathered? Who is responding?

Different areas have different "micro-cultures" reflective of the people who live there. Survey one of my old neighborhoods about music and you'd probably get a surprisingly high number of people who liked some form of punk or metal.

Survey a different neighborhood I knew? Salsa music.

I'm not saying the collected statistics are innacurate, only that they may reflect the tastes of the 181K people surveyed very well, but that those results probably don't reflect well beyone the age and social demographic of the particular people surveyed.

As statisticians have said, you even have to factor in that your survey results can only reflect that portion of the population who will _participate_ in surveys.

So, the numbers may be a fair representation of the specific people surveyed, but to try to draw larger conclusions from the numbers would not be advisable.

Posted: May 7th 2009 5:18PM (Unverified) said

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Well-done surveys do not scale nearly as badly as you suggest. Nielsen is a professional survey company; they do this for a living, and they aren't going to make silly mistakes of the kind that you cite. They go to lots of trouble to make their samples representative.

I'm amused by how strongly some of the commentors here want (need?) to dismiss these numbers. I play both WoW and SL, so I get to be happy that both of my hobbies are at the top of the list. :)
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Posted: May 8th 2009 12:46AM mysecretid said

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Dale, you misunderstand my key point.

I was not attempting to take issue with the legitimacy of the surveying, so much as how those numbers can be interpreted, often by third parties.

Nielsen can give us numbers, but determining precisely what those numbers show, or what they mean (in various contexts) can be problematic.

For myself, I play neither World of WarCraft nor Second Life, and have no vested interest in proving or disproving anything in regard to those games..

I was merely citing, albeit second hand, some of the problems statistician friends of mine have mentioned whenever third parties attempt to derive meaning from statistical data.

Even amongst themselves, statisticians disagree over interpretations of significance. While numbers don't lie, agreeing upon the relevance or the significance of a given statistical sample can be far more problematic.
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Posted: May 7th 2009 6:11PM (Unverified) said

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I play both WoW and SL (not as much as I used too, but still log in from time to time) and I think it's cool they are both are the list. It is odd how some of the biggest selling games (Sims 2, Warhammer Online, Lord of the Rings Online, etc.) are not listed, but then again it really depends on the area where they did this. Well, it's till a neat article and thank you for sharing it with us.

Posted: May 7th 2009 11:16PM (Unverified) said

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Just peeked at NPD's sales charts. The Sims 2 vanished from the charts after January (at least from the top 10). I think we're still a bit early for April's chart, but Sims 3 advertising is all over, and Sims 2 may essentially be end-of-lifing.
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Posted: May 7th 2009 6:14PM (Unverified) said

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The Messiah of Mount and Magic number's really do surprise me. It just seems incredibly unlikely that it would garner that many people and playtime with it's meager sales figures.

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