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Reader Comments (33)

Posted: Feb 4th 2009 9:33AM (Unverified) said

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link where your supposed prediction is. I'd like to see how you predicted 2/09 for TR to close down.

As far as WAR to TR, you're a bit off base. TR opened w/ barely 150K subs and the attrition rate on that came was terrible. I know. I played through the first 8 months. People were quiting left and right, and no one new was joining.

WAR has a much larger base to start, new players are at the least trying the game all the time, and their development cycle is x100 faster.

These are the same "AoC will close next year" posts that have little to no validity in them. Other then the personal agenda's of others that think anything BUT beating WoW is a failure. Is Pepsi a failure b/c they aren't as popular as Coke? Hardly.

AoC is seeing a large return/new player influx (again, I know b/c I'm playing it), and I think 9-12 months after WAR's release, we'll see the same thing. Right now, WAR's hit a wall as RvR is feeling stagnent (An again, I know b/c I'm playing it), and the devs are actually trying to implement new ways to keep players involved. It's just going to take more then what they currently have. But over time, several new additions will be what draws old players back and new players in.
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Posted: Feb 4th 2009 12:41AM (Unverified) said

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With criticism like this how can any game -not- fail?

Posted: Feb 4th 2009 1:49AM TheJackman said

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300K paying subscribers in North America and Europe and before they had 700k subs they loss more them 400k subs?! Wow what the hell happened!?

Posted: Feb 4th 2009 3:17AM Khannington said

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(All in British Pounds)

300,000 * £8 per month = £2,400,000 per month

Thats £28,800,000 per year (approx $40,984,714). Plus you have the £20 to £30 cost of the game initially.

I don't understand why people are shocked at that, as a business I would be extremely happy with those kind of numbers (well depending on costs but you know).

I think we'll see that number at least double in 2009 with all the new content and post-WoW expansion burn outs. Plus WAR is a PVP game and therefore won't please many of the people looking for a PVE title.

Adrian

Posted: Feb 4th 2009 4:13AM venekor said

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I told Mythic what was wrong about their game in Beta and all that happened was I got flamed by lots of fanbois, the thread was shut and I was banned from the beta forums for the post...... like ok whatever I just told them how it is. These were the problems with the game in beta.....

- The way the world was made with 3 linear paths with 2 races following side by side on each one made it so that everyone was split up and most of the areas were dead. What happened with only 2 cities being open was everyone migrated to Human and Chaos zone and the other 2 were dead.

- The PVE was too easy and sucked, was really boring all the way through. It felt like basic WoW tutorial quests stretched throughout the game.

- The world felt too fake and they needed to construct it more like WoW's where it felt natural.

- As the population becomes top heavy like in all mmorpgs, all the low level RVR zones would become barren and pointless of being there like the Public Quests.

- Animations and spell effects are horrible.

- The little video as you get on the griffon or whatever to change land was horrible.

- The world was most really generic, boring and unfun to explore.

- The graphics looked like a generic version of WoW and really ugly because of it.

- Keep RVR was really repetitive and unfun, it wasn't about skill or tactics but about the Zerg and always ended up on this constant Planetside like back and forth.

- There was too many classes that felt esactly the same to eachother and they were justr eally bland and all felt weak and just everyone I spoke to had a hard time picking a class they liked. Which is a far cry from WoW which makes every class fun and unique to play.... Mythic went with a stupid Archetype system that didn't work in EQ2 and wudnt work now.

- Alot of the mounts were ugly and animated poorly like the Cold one mount.

- The Music sucked in the game.



I could go on and on because the game is just a horrible, boring WoW clone and all the beta fanbois wouldn't accept that and Mythic wouldn't listen and decided to ban me from the forums instead for saying the truth.

Posted: Feb 4th 2009 5:48AM (Unverified) said

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Scorn a bit?

anyhow the 700k was registered accounts, not paying customers, and the normal drop of rate is about 40-50% for ALL mmos during the first 6 months so there's nothing special about these numbers, but its nice to see the doomsayers having a field day
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Posted: Feb 5th 2009 6:54AM Temploiter said

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Except for AoC, I know of ZERO AAA MMOs that lost that much during their first really 4 months:

http://www.mmogchart.com/Chart2.html

Might wanna re-think that statement and take your rose-colored glasses off. The game isn't horrible, it's just got some major design problems that could have been addressed before release. Then again, EA = Bad at MMO management.
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Posted: Feb 4th 2009 9:33AM (Unverified) said

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While 300K puts them in third place (WoW, LOTRO) I don't see that as too bad.

That said, MJ stuck his foot in his mouth about claiming "500K or bust" b/c he looks silly again.

I don't see 300K as any kind of "failure".

Posted: Feb 4th 2009 10:31AM Minofan said

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I don't believe that 300k is a terrible figure, but no-one outside of Mythic & EA can actually say for sure because we only have that figure in isolation.

E.g. A film that grosses $150 million could be said to be a big hit, but context is everything...
If that film was made for $10m by a backwater company then it is a massive success beyond the dreams of avarice.
If that film stars Will Smith and boasts 100 minutes of cutting-edge FX with a production cost of $151 million then it's a disaster.

All we can say for sure about WAR is that in September it was described by MJ as costing less than $100m to make.
After factoring in merchandising and EAs expectations, it would be disingenuous to propose that performing on par with productions the level of EVE and LotR is a great return.
CCP (the EVE company) raised the Icelandic equivalent of US $2.6m to start development of EVE, and I'm willing to wager that in the 8-9 years since their total development & maintenance cost less in total than WAR did on the day of release.

What's a great number for CCP is likely a bad number for Mythic.
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Posted: Feb 4th 2009 11:10AM (Unverified) said

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300k would not be a bad number if you had only 10 total servers to log into.

DAOC 2 would have been a lot cheaper to produce (they own the IP) and would have gotten comparable population numbers.

Posted: Feb 4th 2009 12:15PM J Brad Hicks said

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Scales: One map. And one dungeon. And two character classes, both of which were almost done a year ago when the game was in beta; they just changed a couple of the powers and reskinned one of them. So even if they hit their dates in that schedule (and they haven't hit a scheduled date yet in the entire history of this project, but even if they do) the game will still not be feature-complete 9 months after it shipped. (Still no mention of the missing four capital cities, for example.) No, compare that schedule to the video over at IGN with all its empty offices and how few people it showed. Are those few people going to be able to provide enough content and add-ons and fixes to sell monthly subscriptions to over half a million people? I think not.

JP: I can't find the link quickly, but it was in my first review of Tabula Rasa. By comparing it to Auto Assault, which made most of the same mistakes, I predicted that NCsoft would pull the plug on it no later than late December of 2008. They're letting people play for free, and letting a few of the developers pad their resumes while they look for work, but early December is when they announced they were pulling the plug, about a week, week and a half ahead of when I predicted it. So I'm pretty confident that the same math applies: Electronic Arts will run out of willingness to support a money-losing game absolutely no later than next year.

Posted: Feb 4th 2009 2:57PM Drexel said

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You do realize that WoW took over 4 years and 2 expansions to become "feature complete" when they FINALLY released a Hero Class? Hey, how about those new emotes and dances that were so heavily featured in the Wrath of the Grind King trailer? Hmm...still not feature complete I guess.

Not that dances and emotes are game breaking one way or the other but the idea of "feature complete" is a pretty weak success barometer.

I think it is held back by system requirements and no free trial. Releasing while the AoC fiasco was still fresh on everybodie's minds hurt their original box sales. By the time people were thinking about making the move their crack dealer released WotLK. A DF style dungeon with less (not more) instancing and a 10-14 day trial will boost them nicely IMO.
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Posted: Mar 11th 2009 2:58PM (Unverified) said

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What was really funny to me were all the comments about how this game was going to take WoW out, or at least really hurt it! LOL! I hope people understand now. That will not happen until Blizzard releases their next game. However, that game will not knock wow off the top spot either. But they'll steal 2 to 3 million subs from WoW, I'd bet my house on that.

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