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Reader Comments (3)

Posted: Dec 12th 2008 4:40PM (Unverified) said

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This is a little bit of a tangeant but...

From my initial impressions and reading other comments on this game I think this game is going to suffer from what I would like to dub "The Warhammer Effect".

Basically the effect is like this....

1. MMO gains large hype and momentum from IP, timing, companies previous experience.
2. MMO launches with huge initial player surge from the above and people who are 'bored' from WoW and looking for new MMO. The game maker appropriately launches a proper number of servers in response to this.
3. The 'bored' WoW players who instantly miss WoW and their character, players who only played because of the IP, and the normal attrition of player lose hits relatively quickly. Quality of game will affect this rate but it'll always be a net loss as there's no way a company can fully fill the expectations of the above audiences.
4. While the total remaining player bases is quite high many initial servers become barren or lower population. This accelerates player decline on said servers as playing an MMO on a low population server is not as engaging as a healthy server.

At this point the company has been hit by the effect. They're stuck in a catch-22. Their two main option both have drawbacks. One option is they can leave their wide number of servers and continue to lose people on the barren servers + have a small number of people spread bad word of mouth because they didn't enjoy the game on their empty servers. The other option is to do server merges/transfers. This helps slow the attrition of players as people will be on healthy population servers but it doesn't stop the bad word of mouth from players who have left. It also sends out bad signal. Players will think that the MMO is 'dieing' and not worth their time.

So either way the company is somewhat screwed in the short term. It's only with good support, high level of polish, and continued monitoring of server population that they can begin repair their reputation even though they did nothing wrong to damage it in the first place.

With a doubly-so popular IP (both in terms of being KOTOR and Star Wars), setting other than high fantasy and a very well respected development team I think they're absolutely doomed to hit this effect.

There's no way a 1st time MMO developer can avoid all the pitfalls of MMO development and hope to launch a WoW-polished game (as it is now not as it was at launch). And unless you can accomplish that I don't think you stand a chance at building a huge player base without hitting this effect.
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Posted: Dec 12th 2008 5:22PM (Unverified) said

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My question is this: What's wrong with that? I think every MMO these days is going to have to hit that brick wall, then build up a loyal fanbase. With a behemoth like WoW around, this is just how it is.
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Posted: Dec 13th 2008 8:08AM (Unverified) said

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"There's no way a 1st time MMO developer can avoid all the pitfalls of MMO development and hope to launch a WoW-polished game (as it is now not as it was at launch)."

It's hard for a "veteran" MMO developer to launch a game like that, honestly(ie: WAR, AoC). I don't think Bioware's supposed lack of experience will have any impact on it though -- the Bioware Austin team is composed of people who have been working on MMOs since the formation of the genre, and Bioware has a pretty good track record.
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