Sibley Verbeck, CEO of The Electric Sheep Company -- a major metaverse and virtual worlds development firm -- has made a set of sobering predictions about the virtual environments industry as a consequence of the current economic situation.
Verbeck makes six predictions, not every one of them presaging doom. We're not sure we agree with all of them, so we'll lay them out in front of you.
1. Elimination of at least 80% of Virtual World advertising, marketing, and sponsorship efforts.
This is a tough one to call on. A lot of the big virtual environment marketing efforts of 2007 and 2008 fell on their own swords. Some were so poorly-conceived that they couldn't have sold Halloween candy to six year-olds. We're certainly expecting a downturn in the charred and smoking wake of that, regardless of the economic situation elsewhere.
How much will the economy also affect that? It remains to be seen, but we agree that some downturn in this area is to be expected.
2. Enterprise use of Virtual Worlds will Stagnate.
We're not betting the same way. Virtual Worlds London kicks off tomorrow, and we expect some people there will have a bit to say about this topic. Verbeck acknowledges that enterprise use saves a metric tonne on corporate travel costs, but also that that class of usage is immature in the mass-market. We agree on both those points, but we don't think 'stagnate' is the appropriate word. We expect some growth in this area. Maybe not a whole lot, but noticeable growth nonetheless.
3. Kids' Worlds will Continue to Grow at a Healthy Rate.
Well, hooray for the kids - and the folks running environments for them. If you don't already have one on the market with a decent customer-base, mind, you might have some troubles, however. We agree that the ones that are already going will probably still do okay. There's nothing that separates money from an adult like a child with pastime.
4. Many Startups Will Fail
Spurious. True, but spurious. This statement is technically true of any industry, in any time, regardless of economic conditions. Simply put, the majority of all startups fail.
5. Virtual Conferences?
This seems to lump in with item 2. Virtual conferences are cheaper, but less mature. Virtual conferences are essentially an enterprise use.
It seems Verbeck would like to see virtual conferences take off -- but until conference organizers find ways to monetize such events, they'll probably continue to fight against virtual conferences.
6. A new Virtual World Winter?
Verbeck feels that areas other than virtual environments for kids will hit a lapse over the next few years. Certainly even short term disruptions in funding can kill a lot of long-term projects. If Verbeck is wrong about the juvenile virtual environment industry growing, it could indeed cause a severe break in development, innovation and the arrival of new industry products.
Check out Verbeck in his own words. What do you think?
