It doesn't matter who they've alienated. They still have 10 million subscribers. For a little perspective on the MMO market, consider that currently the next most popular game in terms of paying subscribers after WoW is Runescape. Yes, Runescape. They have around 1.2 million at $6 per month, which is low enough not to matter to many people. No other "full featured" MMO that's not a joke of a game is even close to WoW. AoC has more than Runescape currently, but we'll have to see what that number is after a couple years before we judge it. They've already lost a good many of their early subs.

The point is many people will pay $6 a month for a fun silly game, but the market for a $15/mo MMO is not large enough to support a WoW killer. Until WoW burns out, or Blizz makes a sequel it will be #1 by a long shot.

WAR, at least based on beta so far, will not come close.