It's time for the next installment of Ask Massively. This week we're going to discuss some of the proposed "WoW Killers" out there and whether or not they really have a chance to knock off the most successful MMORPG in history. Doesn't that sound grandiose? This seems like a time to remind everyone that the MMORPG genre is relatively young. The oldest MMORPGs such as Ultima Online and Meridian 59 are barely a decade old.Our friend, Vince, is back with a follow-up question to his question on Wild West MMOs from last week. For more, take a look after the jump. If you'd like to have your question answered by Massively, feel free to comment after this post, or send a email to our tipline.
Dear Massively,
Do you think that the WoW killers (Warhammer Online: Age of Reckoning and Age of Conan) will flop and WoW will still conquer?
- Vince
I believe that the idea of a "Killer" game is a myth. When I was playing Everquest , 5 years ago, many pundits said that games like Dark Age of Camelot and even World of Warcraft would spell the end of EQ. Even with the relative glut of MMORPGs on the market, EQ still maintains a niche market of hardcore fans and is even working on expansions and new content. A game that is still expanding cannot really be said to be dying, can it?
Sure, EQ has seen a distinct drop in subscribers since World of Warcraft came out, but even Ultima Online keeps chugging along over a decade since it first hit the market. The question shouldn't be "Which game will kill WoW?", but rather "Which games will be true rivals to WoW and not just occupy a small niche market?"
I don't think any rational person expects Age of Conan or Warhammer Online to match or exceed World of Warcraft's success in the marketplace. 10 million subscribers is so far above and beyond the average subscriber base for an MMO that it would be foolish to expect a new game, especially one in a similar genre, to achieve that kind of success. That isn't to say that I don't think these games won't be successful. Good gameplay, and an engaging storyline will always earn a loyal following, and the demos that I've seen for these games lead me to believe that these games will find their niches if they can deliver on their promise. More to the point, I think that any game that can advance the state of the art in MMO gaming will press existing titles, such as World of Warcraft, to constantly improve and expand their games. Such innovation benefits us all.
I think the future of MMORPGs lies in providing players with a detailed and rich game universe. The easiest way to make that happen is to leverage existing popular properties such as Star Trek and Lord of the Rings and develop something that players enjoy playing. The "good gameplay" element needs to be stressed, however, otherwise you might wind up with something like this. A game that can entertain players both with it's story and with it's gameplay can maintain a relatively small niche indefinitely. From a business perspective, I'm sure that Turbine would be immensely pleased to maintain an annual subscriber base of 100,000 players for Lord of the Rings Online. knowing that those players have almost no incentive to leave the game. These players are Tolkien fans first and MMO players second. There is no competition for those players and as long as the game is engaging, those fans aren't going anywhere.
That is why I have higher hopes for games like Star Trek Online, Pirates of the Burning Sea, and Age of Conan that I do for "Generic_fantasy_mmorpg_01". The players who subscribe to these games will be fans of Star Trek, Pirates, and Conan more than they are hardcore MMORPG players. As long as the developers of these games deliver on the promise of entertaining game play and don't settle for slapping a 3D engine on top of a bad role playing game, they will have a loyal subscriber base for many years.
One final note...
Many of you have heard of Curt Schilling and his start-up MMORPG company, 38 Studios. One of the things that caught my eye about this effort, aside from the fact that I am a hardcore Boston Red Sox fan, is that Schilling is bringing in well known talent such as R.A. Salvatore and Todd McFarlane to work on the game design. This tells me that 38 Studios is looking to create a top-notch game universe and isn't settling for a generic, and often poorly written game setting. On the game development side, Schilling has brought in veterans from Electronic Arts and Wizards of the Coast to run the show. Schilling appears to be investing his money in making a good game, and not just slapping together something to rush to market. If the team at 38 Studios lives up to it's promise, the resulting game might very well prove to be a rival to World of Warcraft. On the other hand, the folks over at Blizzard aren't exactly standing still.
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